XRP Nears Key Gaussian Retest as Analyst Says Decade-Long Pattern Is Reappearing

XRP could be approaching a key long-term technical level, according to analyst ChartNerd. 

The analyst believes the token is following a pattern that has repeated across multiple market cycles over the past decade.

While historical trends do not guarantee future results, ChartNerd said XRP’s recent decline could be setting up another major long-term buying opportunity.

XRP Approaches Gaussian Channel Support

ChartNerd highlighted XRP’s 3-month Gaussian Channel, noting that the asset is once again nearing the channel’s upper regression band after months of declines.

According to the analyst, XRP has retested this dynamic support in every previous market cycle before moving into a strong rally.

The chart points to similar Gaussian retests in 2017, 2020, and 2023. ChartNerd believes 2026 could now be following the same pattern.

The upper regression band currently sits around $0.86. However, that level is expected to gradually rise as the channel evolves.

The analyst also noted that XRP has not always reversed exactly at the band. In previous cycles, the price briefly fell below that level before recovering and entering a sustained uptrend.

Bearish Momentum May Keep Pressure on XRP

Despite the potentially bullish long-term setup, ChartNerd warned that XRP’s correction may not be over.

The analyst said Heikin-Ashi candles continue to print large bearish bodies with no upper wicks. This pattern typically signals sustained selling pressure.

ChartNerd expects XRP to see a short-term relief rally. However, the broader downtrend may continue before the market forms a lasting bottom.

The combination of bearish momentum and the approaching Gaussian support creates what the analyst described as a notable technical confluence.

Notably, XRP has seen an over 3% gain over the past day, trading at $1.13. This has improved the weekly performance as XRP now boasts a 7% gain.

XRP Down More Than 72% From Recent High

ChartNerd also highlighted the scale of XRP’s decline. The cryptocurrency has dropped more than 72% over the past 11 to 12 months. Indeed, since XRP hit $3.65 in July 2025, it has fallen to $1.0098 in June 2026.

Rather than viewing the sell-off as a reason for panic, the analyst argued that similar corrections have historically preceded some of XRP’s strongest rallies. For instance, XRP’s price dipped 96% after its 2018 peak.

Amid hopes of recovery, ChartNerd said the current market is closer to a “generational entry,” suggesting the downside is now lower for those buying now.

Even so, the analyst stressed that no technical indicator can predict future price movements with certainty. Essentially, historical patterns are not guarantees.