XRP AVWAP Goes Flat; How Could This Affect Price in the Future?

The XRP AVWAP indicator has recently gone flat after a recent surge, which could have significant implications for XRP’s next price direction.

XRP had one of its strongest monthly performances in years in August 2026. The token rose 28.5% during the month, making it XRP’s best August since 2021. However, most of the gains came in the final two weeks, when XRP jumped from $1.00 to $1.70 in just three trading sessions.

The rally lost steam after the sudden move. XRP spent the next six sessions trading within a narrow range before falling further.

Currently, XRP trades near $1.33, about 20% below its late-August high. Amid this decline, one important technical indicator has stopped rising, and this could provide hints about XRP’s next move.

What a Flat XRP AVWAP Is Telling the Market

The Anchored Volume-Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) tracks the average price traders paid for an asset from a specific starting point, while also taking trading volume into account. 

In XRP’s case, analysts anchored the indicator to the Aug. 19-22 breakout that started the recent rally. This makes the AVWAP a useful measure of the average entry price for traders who bought during that move.

The AVWAP climbed during the first week after the breakout. This showed that the average buyer still had a price cushion, which reduced the pressure to sell. 

However, the swing AVWAP has now flattened at $1.392. XRP has also fallen below this level, meaning the average buyer from the August breakout now holds an unrealized loss. This could weaken the support that previously helped keep selling pressure under control.

The Range Is Compressing into a Decision

XRP’s six-session consolidation after the $1.70 surge has created a tightening range. The upper levels moved down from the $1.556 value area high to $1.51 and then to the $1.477 Point of Control (POC). Meanwhile, the lower levels moved up from $1.335 to $1.36 and then to the $1.392 AVWAP.

This shows that both sides of the range have moved closer to the same cost basis. The $1.477 POC is important because it marks the price where XRP recorded the highest trading volume during the August expansion. 

XRP tested this level and faced rejection on Aug. 25, Aug. 26, and again before the latest decline. These repeated rejections show that buyers have not yet had enough strength to push XRP above this key area. 

With XRP now below the AVWAP, the $1.477 POC has turned into overhead resistance, while the $1.335 value area low remains the main support below.

XRP Faces Two Paths Forward

XRP’s next major move could depend on whether it can recover the $1.392 AVWAP. For the bullish setup to strengthen, XRP would need to reclaim that level and then record two 4-hour closes above the $1.477 POC. 

If that happens, the $1.556 value area high would become the next major target. Above that level, the volume profile becomes much thinner toward the previous $1.70 high, which could allow XRP to move quickly if buying pressure returns.

The downside case currently appears more important in the short term. Ali Martinez identified the $1.35-$1.38 area as a major demand zone, with roughly 3.2 billion XRP previously traded within that range. 

A close below this zone could bring the $1.335 value area low into focus. If XRP also loses $1.335, the thin volume below could leave the price exposed to around $1.30.