XRP NUPL Hits 8-Month High as Price Rebound Pushes Market Into Hope-Fear Phase

The XRP NUPL metric recently rose to a level last seen in January 2026, as the latest price rebound pushes XRP into the hope-fear phase.

XRP has continued its recovery after falling to $1.25 on Sept. 16. The decline did not last, as buyers have since pushed the price back to $1.53 within days. Currently, XRP trades at $1.54, extending a recovery that has gained strength throughout the third quarter of 2026.

Notably, XRP first posted a 2.16% gain in July 2026 before recording a much stronger 30% rise in August 2026. The token has so far added another 11% in September 2026 alone. 

These three consecutive monthly gains suggest stronger buying activity and a broader improvement in market conditions, with both technical and on-chain data now reflecting the change.

NUPL Crosses Into Hope-Fear Territory for the First Time Since January

One of the signs of this change comes from XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL. For the uninitiated, the on-chain indicator measures the overall unrealized profit or loss of XRP holders by comparing the current value of their coins with the prices at which those coins last moved on the blockchain. 

An NUPL reading above zero means the average holder is in profit, while a reading below zero shows that holders collectively carry losses.

Current data shows that XRP’s NUPL has climbed to 0.1278, moving the indicator into the Hope-Fear phase. This phase indicates that the market has moved out of broad losses and into the early stages of recovery. 

Sentiment can improve during this stage, although the market has not yet reached the level of optimism often seen near cycle peaks.

The 0.1278 reading also marks an eight-month high. XRP’s NUPL last reached similar levels in January 2026. For much of 2026, the indicator remained deeply negative and moved close to capitulation levels during the market’s mid-year weakness. 

The return to positive territory shows an improvement in holder positioning. However, the 0.1278 reading remains relatively low, leaving substantial room before the indicator reaches overheated levels.

Ichimoku Cloud Break Adds Technical Confirmation

XRP’s daily chart confirms the improving on-chain picture. The price has broken above the Ichimoku Cloud. Specifically, XRP recently moved above the Kumo, which indicates a change toward a positive trend. 

The cloud extending into October is also green, meaning Senkou Span A remains above Senkou Span B. This structure suggests continued strength in the forward-looking part of the indicator.

Senkou Span A currently stands at $1.5444, matching XRP’s current price of $1.5444. This makes $1.5444 the immediate level to watch. If XRP holds above Span A, the cloud breakout remains in place. If the price falls below it, XRP could move back inside the cloud.

Senkou Span B stands at $1.4119 and marks the lower boundary of the forward cloud. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen also sit at $1.4119, creating a strong support cluster around $1.41. 

The Tenkan-sen tracks shorter-term price momentum, while the Kijun-sen shows medium-term price balance. The Chikou Span stands at $1.3426 and compares the current price with price action from 26 trading days earlier. Its position also shows XRP trading above the earlier reference point.

Both Signals Suggest Room to Run

XRP’s NUPL and Ichimoku readings now show similar signs of improvement. NUPL has reached its highest level in eight months, while XRP’s daily chart shows the price above the Ichimoku Cloud. 

These two indicators show how much the market has recovered from the weakness seen during the middle of 2026.

The next key test remains $1.5444, where Senkou Span A currently meets XRP’s price. Holding above this level would keep the cloud breakout intact. On the other hand, $1.41 remains an important support area because Senkou Span B, the Tenkan-sen, and the Kijun-sen all meet at $1.4119.