Sberbank Forecasts $46 Billion in Crypto Trading on Russia’s Regulated Exchanges in First Year of New Rules

Sberbank expects cryptocurrency trading on Russia’s regulated exchanges to reach 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles ($40.6 billion-$46.4 billion) during the initial 12 months after the country’s new digital-asset rules take effect on Sept. 1, Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov told state news agency TASS.

The lender’s SberCIB Investment Research unit estimates exchange-based volume could rise to between 4.75 trillion and 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 and reach about 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.1 billion) in 2029.

Popov cited Russian Finance Ministry data showing cryptocurrency transactions in the country at about 50 billion rubles a day as of February, equivalent to roughly 18 trillion rubles annually. SberCIB expects only about 20% of that activity to move onto regulated exchanges initially, with a substantial share continuing through other crypto exchange services.

Sberbank Prepares Crypto Lending and Wallet Services

Sberbank also plans to expand lending secured by digital assets under the new regulatory framework. Popov said the lender intends to accept Bitcoin, Ethereum and the USDT stablecoin as collateral, adding that Ethereum and USDT would be introduced after the Bank of Russia permits their public circulation.

The bank has already gained experience with cryptocurrency-backed lending and plans to adapt its existing products as the regulatory provisions take effect, Popov said.

Sberbank is separately preparing cryptocurrency infrastructure for customers. The lender plans to integrate a crypto wallet into its Sber and Sber Investments applications and have digital-asset depository infrastructure ready by early December.

The bank has offered qualified investors structured bonds and digital financial assets linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum since 2025.

Russia’s Crypto Framework Takes Effect Sept. 1

President Vladimir Putin signed legislation on Aug. 4 establishing Russia’s first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital currencies and digital rights. Its core provisions take effect on Sept. 1, 2026, while other requirements will be phased in during 2027.

Under the framework, non-qualified investors can purchase approved cryptocurrencies through regulated intermediaries, subject to an annual limit of 300,000 rubles per intermediary and investor testing requirements. Qualified investors can buy cryptocurrencies without that investment cap after completing required testing.

Russia will continue to prohibit cryptocurrency as payment for goods and services domestically. The legislation permits certain exceptions, including crypto settlements under foreign-trade contracts between Russian residents and non-residents.

Existing crypto service providers have until July 1, 2027, to comply with registration requirements. A separate transition deadline of March 1, 2027, applies to existing digital financial asset exchange operators, while certain technical provisions governing digital financial assets take effect on Sept. 1, 2027.