Gold Continues to Weaken, Bearish (Wave 3 Impulse Expansion) for OANDA:XAUUSD by NouzTrader — TradingView

XAUUSD

——————————————————————————————————————-

✅ US Monetary Outlook & ABN Amro Analyst Review: Low NFP (29k) vs. December Rate Hike Bets (85%)
US labor market data and macroeconomic analysis are shaping new expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate trajectory:

⚡Low US NFP Data (29k) & Unemployment Rate Rising to 4.2%: The US Department of Labor reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) growth for September reached only 29,000 (with August figures revised down to 133,000). The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.0% year-on-year (the lowest level since May 2021).

⚡CME FedWatch Bets (85%): According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the market continues to price in an approximately 85% probability that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate (+25 bps) at the December 2026 meeting.

⚡New York Session Catalysts Tonight: Market participants are awaiting the release of the US ISM Services PMI and speeches from several influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members later tonight.

——————————————————————————————————————-

✅ Price Action Analysis (H4 Timeframe)
The overall H4 structure remains trapped within a bearish market structure or a low-range consolidation pattern.

After a sharp drop from record highs, gold attempted a corrective rally toward the 4,225.059 range, but this was immediately met with a sharp sell-off that slammed the price back down to the lower base area. At the 4,132.305 price level, the most recent H4 candle is dominated by a bearish move—characterized by a large red body—following a rejection at the green line at 4,225.059.

This strong rejection from the SBR (Support-turned-Resistance) area confirms that sellers remain active in defending the upper barrier and are pushing the price to retest the Structural Low floor at 4,110.870.

——————————————————————————————————————-

✅Key Zones:
– 🎯Resistance / Supply Zone (SBR): The range around the green line at 4,225.059 (SBR area & nearest local resistance), the green line at 4,316.957 (middle gray box / secondary Supply Zone), and the green line at 4,400.761 (ceiling of the Major Supply Zone).

– 🎯Support / Demand Zone: The range of 4,110.870 – 4,120.000 (bottom gray box / Major Demand Zone / Structural Low currently being targeted by price) and the green line at 4,065.546 (lowest macro Support floor).

——————————————————————————————————————-

✅Orderflow / Volume Profile (VPVR) Analysis
The Volume Profile histogram on the right side of the chart provides a highly precise map of liquidity:

🎯Upper High Volume Node (HVN):
A significant accumulation of volume is visible in the 4,180.000 – 4,225.000 range. The buyers’ failure to break above this HVN wall confirms the presence of institutional sell limit order accumulation (selling limit absorption).

🎯Low Volume Node (LVN) / Breakdown Potential Below 4,110.870:
Below the 4,110.870 level, extending toward the green line at 4,065.546, the volume histogram shows significant thinning (a “volume vacuum”). If sellers manage to break through and close an H4 candle decisively below 4,110.870, the decline is projected to accelerate rapidly across this volume-efficiency gap, targeting 4,065.546.

——————————————————————————————————————-

✅ Elliott Wave Analysis
Mapping wave cycle movements on the H4 timeframe:

🎯Wave Structure:
The sharp drop from the peak down to 4,110.870 is calculated as Wave 1 (or Wave A). The corrective bounce that stalled at the green line at 4,225.059 is identified as the completion of Wave 2 (Corrective Wave), manifesting as a shallow ABC pullback / SBR (Support-Become-Resistance) retest.

🎯Current Status:
The sharp decline from 4,225.059 to 4,132.305 confirms that the market is in the early stages of launching the primary impulsive push of Wave 3 (Impulsive Wave 3).

🎯Projection:
Price action is projected to complete this Wave 3 impulsive push by testing and breaking the Demand Zone floor at 4,110.870, traversing the lower LVN zone to target a test of the next structural support stronghold at the green line at 4…