EUR/USD Maintains Bearish Momentum for OANDA:EURUSD by NouzTrader — TradingView

EURUSD

The Euro’s weakness was driven by the escalating hybrid war waged by Russia against NATO member states, combined with the strengthening of the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset following Houthi missile strikes on Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia.

——————————————————————————————————————

✅ NATO-Russia Hybrid War & Christine Lagarde’s Speech Today
Two key factors are overshadowing the Euro’s outlook:

– ⚡Emmanuel Macron’s Warning on Russian Hybrid Threats: French President Emmanuel Macron and senior European officials have warned of increasing Russian cyber operations, sabotage, drone activity, and missile attacks targeting NATO nations that support Ukraine.

– ⚡ECB Tightening Speculation & Christine Lagarde’s Speech: The ECB has warned that inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are proving more persistent than anticipated. This situation increases the likelihood of a benchmark interest rate hike at the ECB’s October meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver a speech tonight to provide forward guidance on future monetary policy.

——————————————————————————————————————

✅ Price Action Analysis (Daily Timeframe)
The D1 structure confirms a continuing bearish macro structure, characterized by the formation of lower highs.

Following a recovery rally from the key “Lower Low” (LL) floor near the 1.13547 green line, EUR/USD surged to a peak of 1.17114. However, this peak failed to break through the upper major supply zone (1.17962), resulting in the formation of a macro “Lower High” (LH).

At the 1.14748 price level, recent daily price action has been dominated by impulsive, large-bodied bearish (red) candles that broke through the horizontal support line at 1.15574. The price is currently consolidating just above the local Demand Zone / SBR area in the 1.14400 – 1.14600 range.

✅ Key Zones:
– ⚡Resistance / Supply Zone (SBR): The range around the green line at 1.15574 (SBR area & nearest local resistance) and the green lines at 1.17114 – 1.17962 (top gray box / Major Supply Zone).

– ⚡Support / Demand Zone: The range of 1.14400 – 1.14600 (middle gray box / local Demand Zone) and the green line at 1.13547 (bottom gray box / Major Demand Zone / Structural Low).

——————————————————————————————————————

✅ Elliott Wave Analysis
Mapping the wave cycle movements on the Daily timeframe:

– ⚡Wave Structure:
The rise from the 1.13547 low to the 1.17114 high is interpreted as the formation of a corrective Wave B (or a macro Wave 2).

– ⚡Current Status:
The impulsive decline from the 1.17114 high—which broke the 1.15574 level and has now reached 1.14748—confirms the unfolding of an impulsive bearish Wave C (or macro Wave 3).

– ⚡Projection:
Price action is projected to complete this impulsive Wave C push by breaking through the local floor at 1.14400 and traversing the LVN zone, aiming for a full test of the Major Demand Zone stronghold around the 1.13547 green line.