History Hints at How XRP Could Perform Against Bitcoin for the Rest of 2026

Historical data suggests that while XRP could build on the August rally against Bitcoin in September, the asset may face a drawdown in October.

XRP has continued to lag behind Bitcoin, despite briefly gaining the upper hand during the market’s rebound two weeks ago. 

The recent outperformance did not last, as XRP has spent the past two weeks falling behind Bitcoin again. The XRP/BTC pair currently trades at 0.00001754, which puts it 48% below its January 2025 high of 0.00003415.

However, market commentator EGRAG Crypto believes XRP’s weakness against Bitcoin could continue into October 2026. At the same time, he expects XRP to build on its 4% gain in August 2026 and potentially make another move higher against Bitcoin in September 2026.

XRP Could See a September Rally Against Bitcoin

EGRAG recently called attention to a strong seasonal pattern for XRP/BTC during the final months of the year. 

Notably, based on historical monthly averages, XRP has gained 17.0% in September, while October has recorded an average decline of 19.6%. The trend then turns positive again, with November averaging a 30.5% gain and December averaging a 44.1% gain.

However, EGRAG believes the sequence is more important than the averages themselves. Historically, September has marked a rotation, October has brought a shakeout, November has seen expansion, and December has produced further acceleration. 

If the pattern plays out again, XRP could begin gaining ground against Bitcoin in September before facing another decline in October.

October Has Been a Difficult Month for XRP Against Bitcoin

October has historically been one of the weaker months for XRP against Bitcoin. The XRP/BTC pair finished lower in 11 of the last 13 Octobers, making it a period that investors may need to watch.

However, an October decline does not necessarily mean that XRP would enter a longer bearish phase. Previous years show that sharp losses in October have sometimes been followed by much stronger moves in November.

For example, XRP/BTC fell 22.4% in October 2020, only to jump 93.8% in November. A similar pattern appeared in 2024, when the pair dropped 24.9% in October before rising an impressive 179.2% in November.

These past moves suggest that another October correction would not automatically weaken the broader case for XRP. However, it could become part of a larger rotation that eventually favors XRP against Bitcoin.

XRP Has Lagged Bitcoin for Most of 2026

XRP’s performance against Bitcoin this year also shows how much the pair has struggled. XRP/BTC fell 0.5% in January 2026 and another 1.8% in February. The decline hit 4.4% in March and then reached 8.8% in April.

XRP managed to post a 1.0% gain in May, but the recovery did not last. The pair fell another 2.0% in June and 4.8% in July. August finally brought some relief, as XRP/BTC gained nearly 4.0%.

This leaves XRP with a long record of underperformance against Bitcoin during 2026, despite the improvement seen in August.

August Breakout Could Set the Tone

The next major question is whether the 4% gain in August 2026 marks the start of a broader XRP/BTC rotation. EGRAG believes a break above the pair’s August high could provide an important signal.

If this happens, XRP could continue its recovery against Bitcoin in September 2026. The move could then face resistance in October, in line with the historical shakeout pattern, before XRP potentially sees stronger performance in November and December.

History does not guarantee that XRP/BTC will follow the same pattern in 2026. However, XRP’s prolonged weakness against Bitcoin and the recent August rebound may be setting the stage.