Marvell Stock Pulls Back After Investor Day Sets $80 Billion FY31 Revenue Midpoint

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) shares fell 2.18% to $280.75 in Wednesday premarket trading, trimming part of Tuesday’s 5.81% advance after the chipmaker unveiled substantially higher long-term financial targets at its Investor Day in New York.

The key update was Marvell’s decision to raise its fiscal 2028 revenue target to about $20 billion from a prior $18 billion. The company also introduced a fiscal 2031 revenue framework of $70 billion to $90 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share expected to exceed $30.

The fiscal 2031 revenue midpoint of $80 billion was well above the $46.85 billion estimate from four analysts polled by Visible Alpha. Marvell’s fiscal 2028 target also exceeded the roughly $18.2 billion analyst estimate compiled by LSEG.

Data Center Business Anchors Marvell’s Growth Framework

Marvell expects its data center business to generate nearly $18 billion of its targeted $20 billion in fiscal 2028 revenue, making AI infrastructure the main growth engine behind its near-term outlook.

Custom silicon is expected to account for a growing share of that business. Marvell raised its fiscal 2029 custom silicon revenue target to more than $12 billion from more than $10 billion. By fiscal 2031, management expects custom silicon revenue of about $30 billion at the midpoint of its broader $70 billion-to-$90 billion revenue framework.

The company also estimated that its total addressable market could reach about $400 billion by calendar 2030.

Management said the fiscal 2031 framework is based largely on customer positions, products, and design wins already secured. CEO Matt Murphy said Marvell does not need additional design wins to reach the target range. Management also indicated that additional customer wins or larger program ramps could add revenue beyond the assumptions already embedded in the framework.

Wall Street Raises Targets After Investor Day

Following the presentation, analysts issued a series of rating and price-target changes tied to Marvell’s new financial outlook.

TD Cowen upgraded Marvell from Hold to Buy and raised its price target to $350 from $245.

Piper Sandler raised its price target to $400 from $270 and reiterated its Overweight rating. Needham also raised its price target to $400 from $300 and reiterated its Buy rating.

Wells Fargo raised its price target to $365 from $310 and maintained its Overweight rating. Evercore ISI also raised its target to $433 and reiterated its Outperform rating.

Existing Hyperscaler Programs Add Context to the Targets

Marvell’s relationships with major cloud and AI companies provide additional context for management’s confidence in the custom-silicon outlook.

The company expanded its custom-semiconductor relationship with Google, with performance-based warrant vesting tied to qualifying custom-product revenue through fiscal 2033. The revenue thresholds are conditions for warrant vesting, not guaranteed purchase commitments.

Marvell has also expanded its relationship with Nvidia through a strategic partnership covering custom compute, networking and silicon photonics. Nvidia separately made a $2 billion investment in Marvell as part of the broader relationship.

Separately, Marvell Technology Tokenized Stock (MRVLon) was trading at $280.71, up 2.76% over the previous 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. The tokenized instrument trades independently of Marvell’s Nasdaq-listed shares, meaning its 24-hour percentage change cannot be directly compared with the listed stock’s premarket move.