Analyst Turns Bullish on Cardano, Eyes 14% ADA Rally Toward $0.20

Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez has turned bullish on Cardano after ADA reached his previously identified downside target of $0.17.

Martinez’s latest outlook marks a notable shift from his earlier bearish warning that ADA could face further losses. At the time, he highlighted declining whale holdings as one of the warning signs. Specifically, the number of wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA fell from 2,370 to 2,340, suggesting reduced participation among large holders.

Additionally, Martinez highlighted a bearish development in Cardano’s MVRV ratio, which formed a death cross against its seven-day simple moving average (SMA). Meanwhile, he also warned that the TD Sequential had also flashed a sell signal on ADA’s daily chart. 

TD Sequential Flashes Buy Signal as ADA Targets $0.20

However, the technical picture changed after ADA reached the $0.17 target.

Martinez now says the daily TD Sequential has produced a buy signal, suggesting that the recent downturn could be nearing exhaustion. Notably, his earlier bearish outlook also relied partly on the same indicator. Therefore, the shift from a sell signal to a buy signal could indicate a potential change in ADA’s short-term trend.

With ADA reaching his $0.17 downside target, Martinez has set $0.20 as his next price target. Reaching that level would represent a 14.28% increase from the $0.1750 area. 

In Martinez’s view, a move toward $0.20 could indicate that buyers are beginning to regain control. So far, ADA has shown early signs of recovery following his latest forecast. The token climbed to around $0.1750, gaining 1.02% over the previous 24 hours.

Nonetheless, spot trading volume declined by 15.39% to $168.85 million, suggesting that the recovery has yet to attract stronger spot-market participation.

Cardano DeFi Activity Shows Signs of Recovery

Meanwhile, activity across Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem has provided some encouraging signals.

On-chain DEX volume has reached $90 million over the past 30 days, representing a 37.5% increase from the previous period, according to DeFiLlama data. Derivatives and perpetual trading activity has also strengthened, reaching approximately $131.5 million.

However, not every Cardano metric points to a recovery. Cardano’s total value locked (TVL) has continued to decline, falling to $65.1 million. This figure stands significantly below the network’s 13-month peak of $437.2 million recorded in August 2025. Specifically, Cardano’s TVL has dropped by approximately 85% from that previous high, according to data from DeFiLlama.

Therefore, while improving trading activity and the latest TD Sequential buy signal offer some optimism, the sharp decline in TVL remains a key challenge for ADA and its broader DeFi ecosystem.