AUD/USD Under Considerable Bearish Pressure for OANDA:AUDUSD by NouzTrader — TradingView

Today’s movement reflects the US Dollar’s (USD) tactical rebound from a one-month low, supported by a combination of full-scale military escalation in the Middle East and tough rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials.

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✅ Monetary Factors: Solid Jobless Claims & a Hawkish Fed Line (Logan & Jefferson)
– US Economic Data Beats Estimates: US Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index released Thursday recorded positive figures, confirming the resilience of the US labor market and manufacturing sector.

– Lorie Logan & Philip Jefferson’s Rate Hike Signal: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has publicly called for a slight increase in interest rates to win the battle against inflation.

✅ Aussie Buffer: RBA Hawkish Stance & China’s Economic Stability
– Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Hawkish Tendency: The RBA maintains its tightening rhetoric due to Australia’s still-frozen domestic inflation, providing a fairly competitive yield differential for the Australian dollar.

– Stable China Data: As a proxy currency for the Chinese economy, the AUD enjoys a protective anchor from stable economic activity data releases, preventing bears from taking overly aggressive short positions.

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✅ Daily Chart Technical Analysis
Technically, AUD/USD is undergoing a reasonable daily technical correction after establishing a record weekly gain, with key indicators maintaining a positive medium-term outlook:

– Key Support Line: Immediate support is located around the 0.6951 level. As long as the spot price remains above the dynamic stronghold at 0.6878, the Aussie’s macro recovery structure from its mid-year trough remains intact (bullish trend intact).

– Upper Barrier: On the upside, sustained strength above 0.6951 and a break of the 0.7020 peak is needed to confirm a continuation of the rally towards the next expansion target at 0.7077.