XRP Must Hold This Level to Have a Chance at Recovering Above $1.29

XRP must hold above a critical support level to keep its short-term uptrend alive and have a chance at recovering above $1.29.

XRP continues to hold up well on the 4-hour chart, even after giving back a small part of its recent gains. The asset is trading around $1.13 after a modest 1.7% decline. The latest dip looks more like a pause after a strong rally than the start of another downward move.

Several indicators support this theory. Specifically, XRP remains in the upper half of its volatility band, and the Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) continues to show a bullish signal. These readings suggest that momentum has cooled slightly but has not turned negative. 

However, the next stage of recovery depends heavily on a single key support area. If XRP falls below the region around $1.07, its chances of climbing back above $1.29 could weaken considerably.

XRP Breakout Above $1.0753 Improved Technical Outlook

The market outlook became more favorable after XRP confirmed a bullish break of structure during the rally earlier on. The price closed above $1.0753 while maintaining the required volatility buffer, showing that buyers had regained control.

This move also turned a previous swing high into a support level and established a higher-high pattern that now forms the foundation of the current uptrend. Since then, the trend indicator has continued to signal an uptrend, confirming that further gains may play out.

The chart also shows several bullish structure breaks during the recent recovery. These signals indicate that XRP has been forming higher highs and higher lows after a prolonged period of selling pressure. As long as this pattern continues, the broader upward trend remains intact.

XRP Moving Averages Continue to Support the Trend

The moving averages also support the positive outlook. The 21-period exponential moving average sits near $1.1218 and continues to provide short-term support during pullbacks. The 55-period exponential moving average stands around $1.0989 and serves as the market’s main trend support.

XRP remains above both moving averages despite the recent decline. This suggests that buyers still control the medium-term trend and have not lost any major support levels. The pullback has simply brought the price closer to support instead of pushing it below it.

The volatility band says something similar. Notably, XRP continues to trade near the upper part of the range, with the upper boundary around $1.1503. Assets that stay near the upper end of their volatility range often retain underlying buying strength even during short periods of consolidation.

Why the $1.07 Area Matters Most

Among all the support levels on the chart, the area around $1.07 remains the most important. This is because it matches the recent break of structure (BoS) at $1.0753, making it the point where former resistance became support.

Notably, such converted support zones are critical because successful retests can strengthen an existing trend. If buyers continue defending this area, they will show that demand remains strong enough to support the broader recovery.

Currently, XRP has entered a controlled pullback while staying above its key moving averages instead of seeing a sharp drop. In addition, the previous swing low near $1.0225 has remained untouched for about 27 four-hour candles, suggesting that sellers have not regained meaningful control.

A Move Above $1.29 Still Depends on Holding Support

The current structure suggests that XRP could continue moving higher if buyers keep control above its key support levels. A successful retest of the 21 EMA near $1.1218 or a renewed advance that keeps four-hour closes above the 55 EMA at $1.0989 would provide additional confirmation.

The bullish outlook would weaken if XRP records a decisive four-hour close below the 55 EMA. Such a move would break the main trend support behind the current recovery and invalidate the setup.

If buyers remain in control, the first resistance level appears near $1.1503 at the upper volatility band. A move above that area could open the way toward the next major resistance around $1.20. Clearing both levels would improve the chances of a rally toward $1.292, where sellers previously stopped the advance.