Glassnode Data Shows Bitcoin Is in Late-Stage Bear Market

Bitcoin has remained in what Glassnode calls “deep value” territory for about five months, with no clear sign that the market has reached a bottom.

According to the on-chain analytics firm, Bitcoin has traded below the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $72,200 since early February 2026. Although BTC rebounded from about $58,300 to $64,400 over the past week, it is still below both levels, suggesting the market remains weak.

Glassnode said long periods below these cost-basis levels have historically marked the early stages of market bottoms. However, it warned that Bitcoin could still fall toward its Realized Price of around $53,000 before a bottom is confirmed.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Drive Selling Pressure

Glassnode identified long-term holders as the main source of selling pressure during the current downturn. Specifically, long-term holders accounted for 43% of all realized losses, up from 15% in early February. 

Many investors who bought near the market peak held through months of losses but are now selling as the prolonged bear market weakens confidence.

Glassnode’s Entity-Adjusted Long-Term Holder Realized Loss metric also climbed to about $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022. The firm said this marks the second major wave of capitulation in the current bear market.

Unlike the previous wave, however, selling pressure has not eased yet. Glassnode said this suggests the market has not reached full sell-side exhaustion.

ETF Demand Improves, but Institutions Stay Cautious

Institutional demand has improved slightly but remains subdued. Glassnode said average daily Bitcoin ETF outflows narrowed from $193 million to $88.9 million. This suggests capital withdrawals have slowed, although net flows remain negative.

Meanwhile, daily ETF trading volumes have ranged between $650 million and $950 million. That is about 80% below the October 2025 peak, indicating institutional participation has yet to recover meaningfully.

Derivatives Show Mixed Sentiment as Bottom Confirmation Awaits

In derivatives markets, sentiment has become less aggressively bearish but remains cautious. The options put/call ratio has fallen to 0.56, its lowest level of 2026. This suggests demand for bearish bets has eased. However, options data still shows investors are buying protection against further price declines.

Glassnode said Bitcoin may be in the final stages of forming a bear-market bottom. However, a stronger recovery will likely require long-term holder selling to slow, ETF flows to stabilize, and Bitcoin to reclaim key price levels, including the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis.