XRP Nears Critical Weekly MA Death Cross That Could Define Its Next Phase

XRP is now close to a recording death cross between the 20-week EMA and the 200-week SMA, which could determine its next direction from here. 

A death cross forms when a short-term moving average drops below a long-term one. While this is often discussed in terms of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the same idea applies to other pairs, including the 20-week EMA and the 200-week SMA.

200W SMA and 20W EMA Seeing Opposing Trends

Right now, this crossover has not happened yet, but it looks very close. Since October 2025, the two indicators have been moving in opposite directions and seem to be gradually converging. 

Notably, the 200-week SMA has been rising since late 2024, but only at a slow and steady pace. Meanwhile, the 20-week EMA entered an uptrend from November 2024, but things changed after it reached a high of $2.77 in October 2025. Since then, the shorter-term average has been falling.

The gap between these two indicators has become smaller over time. At the moment, the 20-week EMA stands at $1.34 and is still declining, while the 200-week SMA has climbed to $1.209 and continues its gradual rise.

If the 20-week EMA falls below the 200-week SMA, it would be the first time this has happened since November 2024. For context, in November 2024, the moving averages witnessed a golden cross, which coincided with a broader market rally linked to Donald Trump’s election victory.

What This Could Mean for XRP Price Action

A death cross usually points to growing selling pressure. In this case, it would show that sellers are gaining more control and that the downtrend is still in place. However, in some cases, this signal appears close to a market bottom.

For instance, in July 2022, XRP showed a similar pattern. At that time, the price had already dropped to a low of $0.28 in June 2022 and was starting to recover. After the death cross formed, XRP still fell slightly to about $0.31 by Q3 2022. 

Following this low, the market stabilized, but XRP saw a consolidation instead of a decisive uptrend despite avoiding further declines. A strong bull run did not begin until November 2024, nearly two years later.

However, not every case follows the same path. During the 2018/2019 bear market, a similar crossover happened in October 2019. XRP continued to fall for several months after the signal, eventually reaching a low of $0.1140 in March 2020. It took about five months for the market to find a bottom.

However, this period coincided with the March 2020 crash caused by the COVID-19 crisis, which many see as an unexpected Black Swan event. 

As a result, some analysts treat it as an exception. If no similar shock happens now, XRP could follow the 2022 pattern, where the death cross appeared close to the bottom and was followed by a period of consolidation within weeks.

Key XRP Levels to Watch

While each market cycle is different, data from these past trends suggest that XRP could form a bottom between now and the end of the year or within the next six months, depending on how the market develops.

Most analysts believe the next major support lies between $0.8 and $0.9. On-chain data supports this view. Specifically, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that below the $1.06 support level, the next strong support sits around $0.8, where about 923 million XRP was previously traded.

With XRP currently priced at $1.13, a drop to the $0.8 to $0.9 range would mean a decline of around 20% to 29%. Whether the price reaches that level or stabilizes earlier will depend on how the market reacts as this possible death cross plays out.