XRP Could Reach $35 if Citi’s $5.5T Projection for the Tokenization Market Plays Out

XRP could climb to higher price levels if the XRP Ledger (XRPL) keeps its share of the market and Citi’s $5.5 trillion tokenization forecast becomes reality. 

This idea recently gained traction after comments from Roger Bayston, Head of Digital Assets at Franklin Templeton, in the latest Evernorth interview.

Citi’s $5.5 Trillion Projection Still Conservative

During the conversation, Asheesh Birla, CEO of Evernorth, mentioned the tokenization report from Citi released in early June. 

For context, the report projected that tokenized securities on blockchain could reach $5.5 trillion by 2030. Birla asked for Bayton’s view on whether the figure might be too high or too low.

In response, Bayton said the estimate may be too low. He explained that when you compare it to the overall size of global capital markets, $5.5 trillion would still represent only a small portion. 

The Franklin Templeton executive pointed out that the financial system is gradually being rebuilt, with blockchain now acting as a more efficient foundation for how these markets operate.

XRPL Market Share and Growth Implications

Right now, the XRP Ledger holds about 2.28% of the total tokenized market, which equals roughly $4 billion in value. This comes as XRP currently trades at around $1.13. 

If Citi’s $5.5 trillion projection becomes reality by 2030 and XRPL keeps its 2.28% share, the network could hold about $125.4 billion in tokenized assets. This would be a major jump from the current $4 billion.

This potential growth could have implications for XRP’s price. To assess this, we asked Google Gemini for a hypothetical estimate.

Responding, Google Gemini explained that there remains no single formula that directly links the value of assets on a blockchain to the price of its native token. As a result, it used three different models to estimate possible outcomes.

XRP Valuation Models

The AI chatbot first presented an estimated market cap-to-tokenized value ratio of about 17.51 for XRP, based on a $70.06 billion market cap and $4 billion in tokenized assets. 

In the first model, it assumed this relationship grows at the same rate. Using a growth multiplier of 31.35x, based on the increase from $4 billion to $125.4 billion, the model produced a projected XRP price of $35.43. This would also put the market cap at around $2.196 trillion.

In the second model, Gemini looked at how markets might behave as they mature. It suggested that speculative pricing could reduce over time as real utility becomes more important. 

If the ratio drops to 10x the underlying asset value, XRP’s market cap could reach $1.254 trillion, giving a price of $20.23. Meanwhile, if it drops further to 5x, the market cap would be $627 billion, with XRP priced at $10.11.

The third model assumed that XRP’s value would only increase by the exact amount of new assets added to the network. With an increase of $121.4 billion in tokenized assets, the total market cap would rise from $70.06 billion to $191.46 billion. Under this scenario, XRP would be priced at about $3.09.

Key Drivers

Gemini also highlighted two major factors that could affect these estimates. The first is XRPL’s deflationary system, where a small amount of XRP is burned with each transaction. If activity grows alongside a $125.4 billion ecosystem, the supply could drop, which may push the price higher.

The second factor is liquidity velocity. Specifically, if XRP is widely used to move value across borders, transaction activity would increase. 

While this could mean people hold XRP for shorter periods, it would also require larger liquidity pools. This could lead institutions to hold significant amounts of XRP, reducing the available supply and supporting higher prices.

In the end, these projections remain theoretical. Still, they show that XRP’s price could range from $3.09 to $35.43 depending on how adoption, market structure, and real-world use develop by 2030.