XRP’s Entire Bull Run Balances on One Fibonacci Level as July Opens With Recovery Push

XRP has gradually erased its bull run gains over the past eleven months and now trades at a crucial Fibonacci level that holds significance to its bull structure.

XRP enters July 2026 at what many see as its most important technical point since the start of the bull run. The asset had earlier climbed from about $1.05 in the second week of November 2024 into an all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025.

However, since then, it has spent eleven months gradually losing these gains. Now, XRP trades at $1.1, sitting just above the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.00795. 

This level is important because it marks a full return to the starting point of the entire rally. Although the first weekly candle of July shows a 5.07% gain, the broader chart structure suggests that the situation is still fragile.

The Final Fibonacci Support for XRP

Toward the end of June, XRP fell to $1.009, its strongest test of the $1 level since November 2024. Slightly below this, the 1.0 Fibonacci level at $1.00795 reflects a complete retracement from the cycle low to the July 2025 peak.

Throughout the eleven-month decline since August 2025, XRP lost key Fibonacci levels one after another. The 0.382 level at $2.65117, the 0.618 at $2.02366, the 0.786 at $1.57696, and the 0.888 at $1.30575 all broke down and flipped to resistance.

If XRP manages to hold above $1.00795 on a weekly closing basis, it could give buyers a base to build from. However, if it drops below this level, bears will have an opportunity to start targeting sub-$1 levels. 

Specifically, the $0.8 to $0.9 range could act as the immediate defense. Below this, the 1.13 extension at $0.66229 becomes the next support, followed by the 1.272 extension at $0.28472. These levels suggest possible declines of 82% and 92% from the July 2025 peak.

Downtrend Still in Control

Meanwhile, a descending trendline that started from the July 2025 peak continues to limit every recovery attempt and confirms that the downtrend remains in control despite the mild July rebound. 

XRP recently reached a weekly high of $1.11, as buyers started testing the resistance at the trendline. However, the price pulled back slightly to $1.09969, leaving the breakout uncertain. A confirmed weekly close above this trendline would be the first sign of a shift in structure since the peak.

So far, this trendline has held firm. Every bounce since August 2025 has failed at or before reaching it. Until XRP breaks above it, the overall trend remains bearish.

XRP Faces Resistance from the Ichimoku Cloud

Also, the weekly Ichimoku Cloud presents further resistance above the current price. The Tenkan-sen stands at $1.27885, while the Kijun-sen is at $1.71205. Both are well above current levels, showing that momentum has not yet turned positive.

For any recovery to continue, XRP must first move above the Tenkan-sen at $1.27885 and then push toward the Kijun-sen at $1.71205. Only after that can it begin to challenge the cloud itself.

The projected cloud spans from Senkou Span A at $1.49545 to Senkou Span B at $2.33696, covering a wide range of $0.84. This wide zone shows strong resistance ahead. 

For XRP to break above the cloud at $2.33696, it would need to overcome all remaining Fibonacci levels, move above four major moving averages, and clear the entire cloud structure. This makes a near-term move toward the 0.382 level at $2.65117 a very ambitious scenario.

Early July Signals and What Comes Next

The first July weekly candle shows some positive signs. XRP opened at $1.04646, reached a high of $1.11, and now trades at $1.1.

On-chain data also shows the market boasts some strength. Specifically, XRP spot ETF inflows have stayed positive for eight straight weeks. In the week of June 26, inflows reached $22.99 million, bringing total net inflows to $1.47 billion. 

Meanwhile, exchange outflows rose from 40.7 million XRP on June 22 to around 123 million XRP in later sessions. This nearly 200% increase suggests that larger players may be accumulating. Still, the market faces substantial risks. 

For XRP to recover, it must move through key resistance levels step by step. The first target is the 0.888 Fibonacci level at $1.30575, which sits close to the Tenkan-sen at $1.27885. After that, the next level to watch is the 0.786 at $1.57696. 

However, XRP still trades below its 20-day EMA at $1.11, 50-day EMA at $1.20, 100-day EMA at $1.31, and 200-day EMA at $1.52. These levels form a strong barrier that the asset must overcome to confirm any lasting recovery.