Next XRP Downside Target After Major 50MA Rejection

XRP remains under pressure after failing to reclaim a major resistance level at the 50-day simple moving average last month month.

Notably, this failure suggests further price weakness in a broader downtrend that has now lasted for nearly a year. Although buyers attempted to regain momentum with that XRP retest in June, the rejection from the key trend indicator suggests that bears still control the short-term direction.

Unless XRP can reclaim the SMA 50, technical indicators continue to point toward the possibility of another move lower.

XRP in a 1-Year Descending Channel

On the 1-day chart, XRP is trading inside a descending channel that has remained intact since its cycle high at $3.66 in July 2025. Throughout this period, each recovery has produced a lower high before the coin resumed its decline.

The latest rebound followed the same pattern. XRP briefly pushed toward the 50-day moving average on June 15. It reached a high of $1.30 that day, falling short of the resistance trendline at $1.32. Essentially, XRP failed to break above the moving average, reinforcing the broader bearish structure.

Following the rejection, XRP has dropped 18% to its current price at $1.06 and is now finding support at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement trendline. Nonetheless, the asset remains beneath key resistance levels, meaning downward pressure continues to outweigh buying momentum.

Historical Pattern Points to One More Dip

A close look at the chart shows symmetry between previous declines. The two earlier bearish legs inside the channel ended after pullbacks of about 50.3% and 53.4%, both producing new lower lows before a temporary recovery followed. The first pullback saw XRP drop to $1.81 in November 2025, and the second one took the coin to $1.12 on February 6.

Notably, the current decline has not yet reached a comparable rate. If the existing pattern continues to mirror the earlier moves and XRP fails to reclaim the 50 SMA, there could still be room for another leg lower before finding stronger long-term support.

The downside target is at least a 50.33% correction from the March lower high of $1.60. This aligns with the 100-period MA, a long-term trend indicator that acted as a major support zone during XRP’s previous market cycle. XRP established a bottom around the indicator in June 2022, then bounced from it in November 2024 to much higher prices.

Currently, the 100 MA lies at $0.815, representing a 23% drop from the current market price. It also aligns with the lower band of the descending channel.

For now, XRP continues to hold the $1 support, bouncing from $1.02 on Wednesday to the current price. Trading volume remains subdued, and open interest is up slightly to $2.31 billion in the past 24 hours, suggesting a cautious approach among market users.