XRP Cycle Bottom Now Depends on Whether It Follows an Expanded, Running, or Regular Flat

The XRP price bottom for the ongoing downtrend now depends on whether the crypto asset is following an expanded, running, or regular flat.

XRP has remained under selling pressure since reaching its all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025. Since then, the asset has lost around 70% of its value and is currently trading near $1.08. 

As the decline enters its eleventh month, Elliott Wave analysis suggests that XRP may still be moving through a flat correction. Notably, the specific type of flat pattern could determine how much further the asset may fall before finding a bottom.

XRP Correction Following Flat Pattern

Under Elliott Wave theory, flat corrections develop in Waves A, B, and C. XRP’s price history over the past several years seems to follow this structure.

Specifically, Wave A began after XRP peaked at $3.31 in January 2018. During the prolonged bear market that followed, the price crashed and eventually reached a low of about $0.11 in March 2020, marking a decline of roughly 97%.

Wave B then reversed the pullback. The recovery erased the earlier losses and also pushed XRP to a new all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025. Considering this, data suggests XRP could now be following one of three flat structures: a regular flat, an expanded flat, or a running flat.

Wave C started after the July 2025 peak and has continued to weigh on price action. So far, XRP has recorded losses in eight of the last ten completed months. June 2026 is also on track to end in negative territory, with the token already down about 18% for the month.

Regular Flat May Be the Least Likely Pattern

In a regular flat, Wave B usually returns close to the starting point of Wave A but does not move significantly above it. Wave C then typically ends near the low established during Wave A.

XRP’s price action does not fit this. Notably, Wave B climbed beyond the $3.31 starting point of Wave A and reached a new all-time high at $3.66. Such a strong move goes against the typical features of a regular flat.

If XRP were still following a regular flat, the correction would likely end near the previous low around $0.11. However, because Wave B moved so far above the earlier high, this scenario is the least convincing of the three.

XRP Price Action Aligning with Expanded Flat

Currently, the expanded flat appears to match XRP’s structure better than the other alternatives.

For context, this type of flat requires Wave B to rise above the origin of Wave A, which XRP already achieved by reaching $3.66. It also expects Wave C to move below the low of Wave A and establish a new downside extreme.

However, applying the standard 1.618 Fibonacci extension correction for an expanded flat would push XRP’s price almost below zero. This is analytically improbable for an asset with such established market depth.

As a result, a less aggressive Fibonacci 1.0 projection works better in this case, and presents $0.46 as a possible target if XRP continues to follow the expanded flat pattern.

Running Flat Still Cannot Be Ruled Out

Meanwhile, the running flat remains another possibility. Like the expanded flat, a running flat allows Wave B to move above the starting point of Wave A. The major difference is that Wave C does not fall below the Wave A low. Instead, it bottoms above that level before the broader uptrend resumes.

If XRP is following a running flat, the correction could end somewhere between $0.50 and $0.80. Interestingly, the $0.80 level aligns with projections from analysts like Casi and Chart Nerd for XRP’s bottom.

However, current market conditions make the running flat less convincing. XRP has suffered nearly continuous monthly losses for almost a year, and the scale of the decline suggests strong bearish momentum. 

Running flats usually show more underlying strength than what XRP has displayed so far. Despite this, the running flat remains valid as long as XRP stays above $0.11. A confirmed break below that level would remove this scenario entirely.

Overall, an impulsive rally that pushes XRP above its $3.66 all-time high and continues higher would invalidate the entire flat structure. Such a move would suggest that the current decline is part of a different and larger market pattern.