SkyBridge’s Anthony Scaramucci Says Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Remains Intact, Eyes Major BTC Rally by Q4 2026

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci believes Bitcoin remains in a normal cyclical correction and has not broken its long-term bullish structure.

Speaking during a CNBC interview, Scaramucci argued that Bitcoin’s recent price action closely mirrors the historical four-year market cycle driven by halving events. 

Bitcoin’s Current Pullback Fits Historical Market Cycles 

After reaching a new all-time high several months following the 2024 halving, Bitcoin entered a significant correction, dropping to $59,000 before rebounding to $65,000. Nonetheless, Scaramucci maintains that the market is moving through a typical post-halving downturn rather than entering an abnormal bearish phase.

Moreover, he emphasized that the current correction has been relatively mild compared to previous bear markets. Historically, Bitcoin has declined between 60% and 70% from its peak during major downturns. By comparison, he noted that the current drawdown stands at roughly 50%, indicating stronger resilience than in prior cycles.

According to Scaramucci, growing institutional participation has helped support Bitcoin’s price. In particular, spot Bitcoin ETFs have introduced a new source of demand that previous market cycles lacked, helping to cushion the asset’s decline. 

Scaramucci Expects Bitcoin Recovery to Begin in Late 2026

Despite the ongoing downturn, Scaramucci expects Bitcoin to begin recovering in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the rally extending into early 2027.

He noted that this timeline would place the recovery roughly nine months ahead of Bitcoin’s next halving in April 2028, a period when supply dynamics have historically started tightening and investor sentiment has improved. 

Historically, Bitcoin has performed exceptionally well in the fourth and first quarters of market cycles. The asset has generated an average gain of 66.7% in the fourth quarter and 52.9% in the first quarter. 

However, the current cycle has deviated from that pattern. Bitcoin ended Q4 2025 with a 23.2% loss and followed it with a 22.1% decline in Q1 2026. The cryptocurrency also closed Q2 with a 3.73% loss. Even so, Scaramucci believes the market will regain momentum later in 2026 and carry that strength into the first months of 2027.

Scaramucci Defends Strategy 

Scaramucci also pushed back against concerns surrounding Michael Saylor and his company’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy. The discussion comes as the company faces substantial unrealized losses following Bitcoin’s price decline. Currently, its Bitcoin holdings are down approximately $8.57 billion.

As a result, some critics have questioned whether an extended bear market could place financial pressure on Saylor and the company. However, Scaramucci dismissed those fears, arguing that Saylor remains in a strong financial position.

He described the company’s balance sheet as strong, suggesting that many critics misunderstand how its financing structure works. Furthermore, Scaramucci highlighted Saylor’s recent efforts to repurchase portions of the company’s convertible debt, reducing a risk factor that had previously concerned some investors.

Market Apathy May Be Signaling a Bottom: Scaramucci 

Beyond fundamentals, Scaramucci pointed to several sentiment indicators that he believes are flashing contrarian buy signals. Notably, he observed that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to historically low levels while investor enthusiasm has largely disappeared. At the same time, Google search interest related to Bitcoin has declined significantly, reflecting widespread apathy toward the asset.

Drawing on nearly four decades of investing experience, Scaramucci argued that periods of extreme pessimism often create the conditions for powerful recoveries. 

To support his argument, he pointed to a recent rally in which Bitcoin surged from approximately $61,000 to $65,000 within a short period. According to Scaramucci, that move illustrates how quickly the asset can respond when buying pressure returns.