Bitcoin HTF Support Zone Signals Short-Term XRP and Altcoin Rally Before Bear Market

Well-known market analyst il Capo believes Bitcoin has entered a support zone that could trigger a brief rally, benefiting altcoins like XRP.

After recovering to $74,000 on May 31, Bitcoin (BTC) began June with renewed bearish pressure, as macro conditions and Strategy’s BTC sale dealt a blow to market sentiments. BTC has since collapsed to around $63,000, dragging the rest of the market with it.

Market Outlook Remains the Same Despite Recent Weakness

Notably, Capo had expected Bitcoin and the broader crypto market to stage a short-term recovery. However, the scenario had not played out at the time of his latest analysis. Nonetheless, he insists that a short-term rally could emerge for now.

During his recent market update, the analyst openly admitted that his timing had been off. He explained that high-time-frame analyses often take longer to develop, and predicting the exact timing of a move is rarely easy. 

To him, understanding the broader trend and overall market direction is more important than getting every short-term move right. For this reason, he said his main outlook remains unchanged despite the recent weakness in price action.

Bitcoin in a Key Support Area

According to Capo, Bitcoin has returned to what he considers a strong high-time-frame support zone. Notably, this represents the same support area from February, when BTC crashed to $60,000. Capo believes this level could again act as a foundation for a market rebound.

He pointed out that market sentiment has become even more negative than before. According to him, as most traders expect prices to fall further, the current environment shows the type of fear often seen near important accumulation periods.

Capo also highlighted several factors that could help support risk assets. First, he believes the conflict in the Middle East is unlikely to escalate further in the near term and instead could move toward a temporary ceasefire. 

In addition, he mentioned bearish short- and medium-term signals in the oil market, the 2026 football World Cup, and typical summer market conditions as factors that could help a broader market rebound.

Possible Rotation from Stocks to Crypto

Notably, while crypto has declined, stocks have posted strong gains over the past several months and may have led the broader risk-asset rally. As a result, capital could begin moving from stocks into crypto during the final stage before a larger bear market develops.

Capo noted that he is already seeing encouraging signs in the altcoin market. According to him, many altcoins have held up better than Bitcoin during recent weakness, and this is a sign of underlying strength.

Meanwhile, other altcoins remain between 90% and 99% below their previous highs. Capo suggests some of these altcoins have not yet gone through proper distribution and capitulation phases. As a result, the current market could represent a buying opportunity, not a time to sell.

XRP and Other Altcoins Could Benefit

Capo also believes upcoming regulations could bring better attention to digital money and blockchain-based payment systems. He suggested that cryptocurrencies with narratives related to the ISO 20022 standard may benefit the most from this.

The market analyst specifically mentioned XRP, XLM, QNT, and HBAR. He suggested that increased regulatory focus and growing adoption of digital financial infrastructure could create favorable conditions for these projects.

Moreover, privacy-focused cryptocurrencies could perform well for a different reason, as Capo mentioned XMR and ZEC as examples of assets that could benefit from an alternative narrative within the crypto market.

Rally May Come Before a Larger Downturn

Despite his positive outlook for the coming weeks and months, Capo clarified that he does not expect the next push higher to mark the beginning of a new bull market. Instead, it may represent a final rally before a broader bear market affects several major asset classes.

He also believes stocks and housing could face major challenges in the years ahead, while areas such as precious metals and rare earths may perform differently from the broader market.

Looking further ahead, he expects another event to trigger a wider economic crisis. While most investors continue to monitor the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, il Capo believes the Strait of Taiwan could pose a higher risk to the market.