Bitcoin Bear Market to Continue? BTC Price Drops Below Key Cycle Indicator

Bitcoin has lost the bear market resistance band after briefly breaking above it, suggesting that the price downtrend could continue.

It is not looking good for Bitcoin (BTC) here. While it has dropped 5% in the past seven days, a recent discovery suggests that bears are just regaining full control of the market, and prices might trend lower.

Key Points

• Bitcoin has dropped below the bear market resistance band following the recent price pullback.
• This band consists of the 20-week SMA and the 21-week EMA.
• Earlier in May, Bitcoin climbed above this band for the first time since late October 2025, following its rally to above $82,000.
• After the recent breakdown, the bear market could likely persist, dragging prices much lower.
• The target is for Bitcoin to bottom in Q4 2026.

Bitcoin Falls Below Bear Market Band

Benjamin Cowen, the founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, shared this discovery in his recent X post. The prominent market watcher remains committed to his prediction that the bear market is not done yet despite widespread criticism.

Yesterday, he shared another market metric backing this view. Cowen highlighted that BTC has dropped below the bear market resistance band following the recent price pullback. For the uninitiated, this band consists of the 20-week SMA and the 21-week EMA. 

Holding above this band keeps bullish momentum alive, and a drop below comes with strong selling pressure. Currently, the band’s upper boundary is at $78,000, and its lower boundary sits at $74,151. Usually, this band acts as resistance in midterm years, capping upside attempts. However, during bull seasons, it acts as the support band.

Earlier in May, Bitcoin climbed above this band for the first time since late October 2025, following its rally to above $82,000. However, this momentum appears short-lived, as it has dropped below the resistance band again.

Bearish Implications for Bitcoin Price 

With the breakdown, Cowen sees further downside. According to him, the bear market could likely persist, dragging prices much lower.

Notably, this is in alignment with midterm seasons, where the market consolidates on gains from the current cycle before ushering in the next. The asset always revisits prior bull market tops from the previous cycle and bottoms there before the end of the year, before any meaningful recovery starts.

The analyst has always expected this to happen, insisting in his earlier BTC price prediction that the four-year cycle is not dead yet. The loss of the bear market resistance further boosts his conviction of this familiar pattern playing out.

His earlier analysis suggests that Bitcoin would slide lower throughout June, eventually breaking the local support near $60,000. The target is to bottom in Q4 2026, contradicting the strengthening speculation that Bitcoin formed its bear market base in February.

Key Levels to Watch

A separate analysis from Ali Martinez highlighted Bitcoin’s trend within an ascending channel that has held price since February.

Currently, the asset is at the lower support zone of this structure, which aligns with both the 100-day SMA and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. This places the channel’s floor at $73,000 to $71,300.

Bitcoin $BTC reached a major support zone!

The price is currently consolidating right at the lower boundary of an ascending channel that has guided Bitcoin since February. What makes this area significant is that the channel floor aligns with both the 100-day SMA and the 23.6%… pic.twitter.com/HRPTmyByYA

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 28, 2026

He noted that if buyers defend this support area, prices could rebound, targeting $77,000 to $79,500. However, losing the $71,300 demand zone ensures a breakdown from the ascending channel. The target is $59,798, which marks a new yearly price low for BTC.