Nikkei reported on May 25 that the US and Iran were discussing a plan to open the Strait of Hormuz roughly 30 days from a final deal, with the early-April ceasefire extended for 60 days and nuclear talks held during that window.
That relief setup for Bitcoin has already been tested.
The US military said it carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran targeting missile launch sites and boats placing mines, while saying it was using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire.
The early-morning update changes the market situation. A ceasefire extension still lowers the immediate probability of a wider escalation, but fresh strikes near Hormuz show that the risk has moved from theoretical to active.
Brent crude rebounded after Monday’s decline, equities traded mixed, and Bitcoin remained pinned near the mid-$76,000s as traders weighed a diplomatic track that remains open against a conflict channel that has not closed.
A ceasefire extension read positively for crypto, as lower oil eases inflation anxiety, softer energy prices reduce safe-haven demand for dollars, and better risk sentiment gives Bitcoin room to breathe.
What the market got was a relief trade, and the Federal Reserve’s rate path and the macro ceiling that has capped Bitcoin since hostilities began will tell if this trade will hold.
Now, the issue is whether Bitcoin can sustain a rally while oil flows, Fed expectations, and military headlines remain unstable.
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| Market read | Immediate effect | Why it helps Bitcoin | Why it may not last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent falls below $100 | Energy-risk premium cools | Lower oil eases inflation anxiety | Physical oil flows may still be disrupted |
| Equities surge | Risk appetite improves | BTC benefits from broader risk-on positioning | Relief can reverse if talks stall |
| BTC trades near $77,500 | Crypto catches relief bid | War-risk panic fades | Breakout remains tied to Fed path |
| 60-day ceasefire extension | Near-term escalation risk falls | Reduces immediate downside tail risk | Fresh strikes show the countdown is already being tested |
New strikes turn the ceasefire into a live Bitcoin test
The latest US strikes do not necessarily end the ceasefire framework, but they do change how markets have to price it.
CENTCOM characterized the strikes as defensive and said US forces were still using restraint during the ceasefire. That framing keeps the diplomatic track alive, but it also confirms that Hormuz remains an active military-risk zone rather than a resolved shipping corridor.
That distinction matters for Bitcoin. A headline-driven oil drop can support a short-term risk bid, but fresh military action near the strait keeps inflation risk, safe-haven demand, and Fed caution in the trade.
The market can still rally on a deal framework. It cannot yet price a durable macro release until the Strait is open, tanker flows normalize, and the strike cycle stops interrupting the diplomatic process.
Sixty days of live headline risk
The Nikkei report noted that Hormuz would open roughly 30 days from a final deal, and the ceasefire extension first creates a two-month negotiation window.
That sequence leaves markets facing at least 60 more days of exposure to live headline risk related to Hormuz access, tanker flows, mine-clearing timelines, nuclear talks, conflicting official statements, and any escalation that could collapse the window before it closes.
The Guardian reported that the US and Iran stayed at odds over key issues, including Iran’s Hormuz blockade, while oil fell on peace-deal hopes, with an Iranian government spokesperson saying a deal was “not imminent” and adding that even if the strait reopens, a return to normal oil flows could take months.
Every oil headline between now and the 60-day deadline lands on markets that cannot yet price a clean end to the energy disruption, which is precisely the condition under which Bitcoin rallies stay capped.
Bitcoin climbed toward $82,000 as WTI fell about 6% on peace-deal hopes earlier in May, then dropped to $76,500 on May 18 when Trump warned Iran that the “clock is ticking,” pushing Brent briefly above $112 and weakening risk assets.
The ceasefire extension may produce another version of that first trade, a relief rally without the macro foundation to hold.
Lower oil and stable oil are different assets
Brent falling below $100 improves sentiment, but the Federal Reserve prices energy differently than equity traders do.
EIA data show that 20.9 million barrels per day moved through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2025, roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption and one-quarter of seaborne oil trade.
Reports noted that about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supply normally moves through Hormuz, with pre-war shipping traffic averaging 125 to 140 daily passages, and separately reported that only several tankers had crossed recently, with traffic running far below pre-war norms even before the ceasefire extension.
A diplomatic headline can send Brent lower within hours, but normalizing tanker traffic through a recently blockaded strait takes months, which is precisely the timeline the Fed weighs when deciding whether the energy disruption has passed.
Bitcoin can trade the oil drop, but the Fed has to price the full oil shock, including the possibility that the 60-day window ends without a deal and Brent retraces its May 25 decline within days.
That asymmetry between what markets can price today and what the Fed needs to see before moving is the core of Bitcoin’s macro problem in this environment.
| Hormuz metric | Figure / condition | Bitcoin relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Oil flow through Hormuz | 20.9M barrels/day in 1H 2025 | Shows why disruption can feed global inflation risk |
| Share of global petroleum consumption | Roughly 20% | Explains why the Fed cannot ignore the chokepoint |
| Share of seaborne oil trade | About one-quarter | Makes Hormuz a global market issue, not just a regional one |
| Normal pre-war traffic | 125–140 daily passages | Sets the baseline for “normalization” |
| Recent traffic | Only several tankers crossed recently | Shows why lower oil does not yet equal stable oil |
| Market implication | Brent can fall before flows normalize | BTC can bounce before macro uncertainty clears |
The Fed’s frozen rate path
On May 11, both Bank of America and Goldman Sachs pushed back their expectations for a Fed cut as elevated inflation tied to energy prices and a resilient labor market. Markets had previously priced two 2026 cuts before hostilities began.
BofA now expects the Fed to stay on hold for the rest of 2026, while Goldman delayed its first expected cut to December 2026 and a second to March 2027.
Both banks point to elevated energy costs working through transportation, manufacturing, and consumer prices, and leaving the Fed without the confidence to declare disinflation was back on track.
On May 20, Fed officials’ inflation worries tied to the war in Iran intensified, with more officials open to the possibility that rates may need to rise.
That move landed directly in market pricing, with traders seeing a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December 2026, with markets fully pricing a 25-basis-point hike by January 2027, compared with expectations for two 2026 cuts before hostilities began.
Those probabilities hold until physical oil flows normalize and escalation risk falls to a level policymakers can safely ignore, conditions a two-month negotiation window cannot guarantee.
The extension gives the Fed more time to watch, with no new information to justify a move, and for Bitcoin, a Fed that cannot cut is also a Fed that leaves the real-rate environment tighter than crypto markets can comfortably sustain.
Two paths for Bitcoin from the 60-day window
The bull case delivers if the 60-day window produces a signed deal, mine-clearing begins, Hormuz traffic normalizes, and nuclear talks durably reduce headline risk. At that point, Brent can move lower on physical supply data confirmed by actual tanker flows.
Inflation risk premiums fade, Fed-hike pricing unwinds, and Bitcoin gets a cleaner risk-on runway. The 40% probability of a December hike that traders priced on May 25 would compress, and BTC can attempt a breakout on confirmed macro support.
| Path | What needs to happen | Oil impact | Fed impact | Bitcoin impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case: relief becomes resolution | Signed deal, mine-clearing, Hormuz traffic normalization, nuclear talks reduce headline risk | Brent moves lower on confirmed physical-flow data | Hike pricing unwinds; cuts become easier to price later | BTC gets cleaner risk-on runway and can attempt a stronger breakout |
| Bear case: ceasefire becomes waiting room | Talks drag, tanker flows recover slowly, conflicting statements continue, oil stays elevated | Oil volatility persists through the summer | Fed stays frozen; hike odds remain live or rise | BTC can rally on headlines, but breakouts stay capped |
| Shock case: window breaks | Ceasefire fails or Hormuz remains restricted | Brent retraces the May 25 decline or spikes | Markets move further from cuts and closer to hikes | BTC faces renewed macro drawdown |
If tanker traffic normalizes over months rather than weeks, Iran and the US keep issuing conflicting statements, and oil holds elevated through the summer, the bear case plays out without the ceasefire formally collapsing.
The Fed stays on hold, rate cuts become harder to price with each passing week, and the 40% probability of a December hike that traders assigned on May 25 climbs further.
Bitcoin can bounce on each positive headline, but the macro ceiling consisting of oil volatility, inflation-risk premium, and Fed uncertainty holds intact, and the 60-day extension delivers exactly what its structure implies: another waiting period on the path to a macro resolution the market has yet to price.
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