Here’s why Bitcoin is stuck below $80,000 and what Powell’s FOMC meeting did for BTC price

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Bitcoin entered yesterday’s Fed decision already capped below a dense on-chain supply zone, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference gave buyers little reason to push through it.

The Federal Reserve kept the target range at 3.5%-3.75% and explicitly linked elevated inflation to higher global energy prices, citing the tensions in the Middle East as a source of uncertainty for the economic outlook.

Powell added to that framing in his opening remarks, estimating that total PCE ran at 3.5% through March, core PCE at 3.2%, and that higher oil prices are set to push overall inflation up in the near term.

The committee also fractured in the most divided Fed vote since 1992. Eight officials held, one dissenter wanted a cut, while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan objected to retaining any easing bias in the statement at all.

The internal split exposed the committee’s actual posture of easing bias and kept the language in the text, while three officials argued that the language was already too accommodating.

For Bitcoin, the consequence is a macro environment where a dovish pivot has become harder to price, even as the March Summary of Economic Projections still showed a median 2026 fed funds rate of 3.4%, implying one cut this year.

Futures markets came away pricing little chance of that cut materializing by year-end, with some traders putting a small probability on a hike over the next twelve months.

The oil hinge

The Fed’s inflation problem traces to an external energy shock that Powell said the central bank cannot control.

Brent oil averaged $103 per barrel in March, with the EIA forecasting a peak near $115 in the second quarter, followed by a decline below $90 in the fourth quarter.

Both headline and core inflation are running hot through separate channels, as energy is pushing up PCE, while tariff effects continue to work through core goods prices.

That two-channel setup prevents the Fed from quickly looking through the oil shock because the committee must first confirm that higher energy costs are not feeding into inflation expectations before justifying a cut.

Near-term inflation expectations are already running higher, according to Powell’s own account. Bitcoin sits below a heavy supply zone at the moment, and the macro case for absorbing that supply has the least near-term traction.

Where Bitcoin gets stuck

Glassnode’s latest report places Bitcoin’s key resistance at the True Market Mean, near $78,000, and the short-term holder cost basis around $79,000.

Both levels converge into a supply zone between $78,000 and $80,000 that BTC has already tested and rejected. The pattern Glassnode describes is a classic bear-market rally structure: price rallies to the breakeven zone for recent buyers, those holders distribute into strength, and incoming demand fails to absorb the supply at that level.

Spot BTC trading near $75,900 puts it below that resistance band and close to $76,000, which Glassnode flags as a downside short-gamma zone.

At that level, dealer hedging flows carry a structural bias to amplify price movement in either direction, selling into any further weakness or buying into any break higher, turning $76,000 into a volatility trigger.

The main support sits between $65,000 and $70,000, with the -1 standard deviation band near $68,000 as the first meaningful structural floor.

A test of $68,000 would put the short-term market structure on trial, with the threshold Glassnode identifies as the level below which distribution accelerates, and the broader base weakens.

Two outcomes

In the bull case, oil follows the EIA’s base path lower through the second half of 2026, headline inflation cools, and the Fed’s one implied cut becomes more credible again.