XRP Funding Rates Mimicking Conditions That Preceded the July 2025 Rally to $3.6

The XRP funding rates throughout this year may be mimicking conditions that previously led to the explosive rally in July 2025.

XRP has begun to recover along with the broader crypto market, rising by more than 7% over the past week and now trading at $1.44. Amid this move, data shows an interesting pattern involving the asset’s funding rates on Binance. 

Key Points

• The current XRP derivatives market conditions resemble patterns that led to a previous surge in 2025.
• Funding rates on Binance have mostly stayed below -0.005 since January 2026.
• A similar setup in 2025 saw funding rates drop to -0.03 on April 4 as the price fell below $2.
• XRP eventually surged to $3.6, with funding rates turning positive during the price recovery.

Persistent Negative XRP Funding Rates Show Bearish Bias

This is according to a recent analysis by verified CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost. The analyst pointed out that current funding patterns resemble those seen before XRP climbed to its $3.6 all-time high in July 2025, which involved an impressive 127% price increase.

Notably, since the start of 2026, XRP funding rates on Binance have mostly stayed in negative territory. Data from the CryptoQuant chart shows that rates have remained below -0.005 since January 2026, with occasional deeper drops. 

In a specific instance on Feb. 6, funding rates fell to -0.0283, the lowest level this year, as XRP’s price dropped to $1.1 that same day. Before this, the last time rates reached similar levels was in early April 2025, during another sharp price decline. 

Although funding rates have recently turned slightly positive as XRP moved back above $1.40, the overall trend this year shows that traders on Binance have mostly taken a bearish stance. According to Darkfost, this now appears close to becoming a broad market consensus.

Market Sentiment Reaches Extreme Consensus Levels

Darkfost explained that when most traders take the same position, it creates a market imbalance. In many cases, this kind of agreement comes too late, after the trend has already played out, which can lead to a move in the opposite direction.

The analyst pointed out that XRP is still down over –60% from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.66, yet many traders continue to expect further declines instead of a recovery. In the past, similar extreme sentiment has not been a reliable signal to follow, as markets often move against the majority.

According to Darkfost, the last time XRP saw this kind of condition, it was followed by a strong upward move. Specifically, the price rose from around $1.6 to $3.6, marking a gain of nearly 127%.

Despite this, the market analyst noted that the broader market remains challenging at press time, especially for altcoins. Because of this, traders still need to approach the market carefully despite the similarities to past bullish setups.

Historical Data Confirms Bullish XRP Position

Historical data confirms Darkfost’s theory. Notably, before the July 2025 rally to $3.6, XRP showed similar funding rate behavior. As the price fell from $3 in early March 2025, funding rates on Binance turned negative and stayed mostly below -0.003 for several weeks, showing that short positions dominated.

On April 4, 2025, funding rates dropped further to -0.03 as XRP’s price fell below $2, marking the lowest level in a year at that time. As the price began to recover later in April, funding rates started to turn positive again. During this period, XRP traded around the $2 level, while funding rates stayed slightly positive.

The upward move continued into late June and early July, eventually pushing XRP to $3.6 on July 21, 2025, with funding rates rising sharply alongside the price.

At present, funding rates are again improving as the price rises, similar to what happened in April 2025. If XRP were to see another 127% increase from its current price of $1.44, it would move past the $3 level and reach around $3.178.