XRP “Boring” Price Hides Strong On-Chain Signal

The price of XRP may be moving sideways near $1.35, but underlying data suggests a very different story is unfolding beneath the surface.

A fresh analysis from community figure Xaif points to the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio as a key signal investors may be overlooking. Market participants often describe this metric as crypto’s equivalent of a price-to-earnings ratio.

Key Points

• XRP trades sideways near $1.35, but falling NVT signals stronger real usage backing its current valuation.
• NVT dropped from 1,200+ to ~170, suggesting less speculation and more utility-driven demand.
• Lower exchange reserves and rising ETF inflows point to tightening supply and growing institutional interest.
• With MVRV at lows and sentiment bearish, historical patterns suggest a potential bottom and rebound setup.

NVT Collapse Signals Stronger Fundamentals

Notably, the NVT ratio measures whether a network’s valuation is supported by real usage. High readings typically indicate speculative excess, while lower levels suggest stronger utility relative to price.

According to the data, XRP’s NVT has dropped significantly to around 170, a stark contrast to mid-2025 levels, when it spiked above 1,200. That earlier surge coincided with XRP trading above $3, driven largely by speculative demand rather than sustained network activity.

Now, the picture appears different.

Xaif argues that at current levels, XRP’s valuation is significantly better supported by actual on-chain usage. This suggests the network is seeing stronger real demand relative to its price than during previous highs.

Market Structure Quietly Tightening

Beyond the NVT shift, several additional factors are reinforcing the accumulation narrative. Over $1.23 billion in capital is locked in spot XRP ETFs, signaling institutional interest.

Xaif added that exchange reserves are trending lower, suggesting reduced sell pressure. Moreover, NVT volatility is compressing, pointing to a potential buildup phase.

This combination suggests a market structure that is tightening rather than weakening.

More Supporting Factors

Meanwhile, XRP’s price is down about 60% from its 2025 peak and is facing extreme bearish sentiment, with FUD near peak levels. Early Bitcoin adopter Lucky Luciano believes this negativity signals a potential bottom, noting that markets often reverse when sentiment turns overwhelmingly negative.

Data from Santiment supports this view, showing bearish sentiment at a two-year high, levels that have previously preceded rebounds. As retail investors exit and confidence drops, contrarian signals suggest a possible relief rally ahead.

“Boring” Phase or Pre-Breakout Setup?

Also, XRP’s MVRV has dropped to FTX-era lows, with holders averaging a 41% loss. Persistent losses and weak sentiment have pressured the price, but historically, such low MVRV levels signal an opportunity zone.

Similar conditions in December 2022 led to a price surge of over 60%, suggesting potential upside if buyers gain the upper hand.

Currently, XRP is trading at $1.35, down 1.1% over the past day and 8% over the past month, frustrating holders.

In sum, while XRP’s price action appears uneventful and retail sentiment remains muted, on-chain indicators are painting a more promising outlook.

The underlying data suggest the asset could be building momentum stronger than its previous rally.