Bitcoin Liquidity Pattern That Has Preceded Every Major Rally Is Back, Analyst Says

A CryptoQuant analyst, Moreno, says Bitcoin has entered a liquidity setup that has historically appeared ahead of major price surges.

According to him, the current levels of stablecoin reserves relative to Bitcoin’s market cap mirror the exact conditions that preceded multiple rebounds since 2020.

Stablecoin Supply Ratio Drops into Historical Buy Zone

Moreno points to the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) as the first major signal. For context, the metric compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the total market cap of all stablecoins, helping determine how much “dry powder,” or idle capital, is sitting on the sidelines.

Binance Reserves Tell the Same Story

The second piece of the puzzle comes from the Binance Bitcoin-to-Stablecoin Reserve Ratio, which paints a similar picture.

Moreno notes that stablecoin reserves on the Binance exchange are rising, while Bitcoin reserves continue to shrink. This combination has historically surfaced right before market recoveries, suggesting a growing pool of capital waiting to buy.

Moreover, it suggests that weak hands are leaving the market while strong hands are accumulating quietly during low-volatility phases.

Moreno notes that this pattern has appeared only a handful of times since 2020, and each instance aligned with the start of a major upward shift in Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Bitcoin Opportunity: Limited Downside, Expanding Upside

According to the analyst, phases like the current one often offer an attractive risk-to-reward setup. With liquidity building and volatility suppressed, the downside tends to be limited, while the upside increases as stablecoins rotate back into BTC.

Notably, this analysis comes at a time when the market remains largely cautious about Bitcoin’s next move.

Against popular expectations, Bitcoin ended October in the red, and the bearish trend has continued into November. Meanwhile, the last three months of the year have historically been a bullish period for BTC.

The ongoing shift in trend has left many uncertain about whether Bitcoin could still clinch some of those highly touted price targets, such as $150K or even $200K.

Amid this cautious market environment, Moreno believes the risk–reward ratio for buyers today remains promising. At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $104,500, down 0.5% over the past day.

When the Structure Breaks

However, Moreno also warns that this liquidity zone acts as the final line of structural support. If these levels break decisively, it could mark the end of the current cycle’s structure and open the door to a deeper market reset before the next expansion phase.

Ultimately, Moreno emphasizes that this setup matters — it always has — and the real question now is what direction Bitcoin will take from here.