Moderna Stock Falls 8% as Melanoma Vaccine Selloff Reaches 25%

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) shares fell 8% to $184.19 in Monday’s early trading, extending the stock’s decline to about 25% since the October 21 close after the release of detailed Phase 3 results for its experimental melanoma vaccine developed with Merck (NYSE: MRK).

The October 26 decline extended a two-session selloff that began when embargoed INTerpath-001 findings leaked online on October 22. Merck and Moderna officially disclosed the results later that day, ahead of the trial’s October 24 presentation at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress in Madrid.

The trial enrolled 1,137 patients with high-risk stage IIB–IV melanoma that had been completely removed by surgery. The trial showed that intismeran autogene, combined with Merck’s immunotherapy drug Keytruda, reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% compared with Keytruda alone.

At two years, estimated recurrence-free survival was 82.2% with the combination versus 70.0% with Keytruda alone, a 12.2-percentage-point difference. The result was below the 49% reduction reported at five-year follow-up in the earlier Phase 2b study, although the trials involved different patient populations and follow-up periods.

The Phase 3 study met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival, with a 38% reduction in the risk of distant metastasis or death. A separate prespecified analysis excluding patients who had not received at least one planned dose of intismeran or placebo found a 49% reduction in recurrence or death. That estimate applies to a narrower Phase 3 patient population and is distinct from the earlier Phase 2b result.

RBC Capital Markets expressed reservations about the Phase 3 findings. In an October 22 assessment, RBC characterized the recurrence-free survival result as being at the weaker end of expectations set by the earlier trial. The bank also questioned the vaccine’s potential commercial advantage over other immunotherapy approaches.

Despite those concerns, Merck and Moderna reported no new safety signals in INTerpath-001. Overall survival data remain immature, and the companies are engaging with regulators while the study continues to assess longer-term outcomes.

Moderna Shares Extend Two-Session Decline

Moderna plunged 17.57% on Thursday, closing at $202.63, before slipping another 1.25% to $200.10 on Friday. Those two sessions erased approximately 18.6% of the stock’s value before Monday’s early-trading decline.

The initial selloff also brought unusually heavy trading. Nearly 49.5 million shares changed hands on Thursday, more than three times the 15.9 million traded in the preceding session. Moderna had reached a 52-week high of $254.48 on October 21, immediately before the detailed findings emerged.

Separately, Moderna Tokenized bStocks (MRNAB) traded at $184.30, down 7.13% over 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. The tokenized instrument trades separately from Moderna’s Nasdaq-listed shares, and its 24-hour performance covers a different period from the equity’s regular market change.

Brookline Lowers Moderna’s 2030 Earnings Estimate

MarketBeat reported Monday that Brookline Capital Markets analyst L. Cann reduced the fiscal 2030 earnings-per-share estimate for Moderna to $18.19 from $19.11 in a research note dated October 22.

The revision represents a 4.8% reduction in Brookline’s long-term earnings forecast. The firm maintained its Buy rating on Moderna shares.