XRP Faces Two Q4 Paths as Price Tests 50-Week EMA Near $1.56

XRP is testing a key $1.50-$1.60 weekly resistance zone, with technical scenarios pointing either to a Q4 pullback or a move toward $1.80-$2.00.

XRP is trading around a key weekly resistance area as two technical scenarios come into focus for the coming weeks. The immediate decision zone sits between roughly $1.50 and $1.60, where XRP is testing its 50-week exponential moving average and a horizontal resistance level.

Chart analyst ChartNerd outlined two potential paths. The first involves XRP being rejected around the $1.50-$1.60 range, followed by a retracement during the fourth quarter. The second allows for a stronger extension toward $1.80-$2.00 before a deeper Q4 pullback.

The chart places XRP near $1.5625, while the 50-week EMA is shown around $1.5238. That leaves XRP only about 2.5% above the moving average, keeping the asset close to the technical level that separates the two scenarios.

XRP Needs to Clear $1.60 for the Higher Scenario

The first scenario would remain active if XRP fails to establish a sustained weekly move above the $1.50-$1.60 resistance zone. A rejection from this area would leave the broader corrective structure intact and could send price back toward lower support during Q4.

The chart does not assign a precise downside target to that retracement, so any lower level beyond the marked resistance area remains unconfirmed.

The second scenario requires XRP to move beyond the current resistance band and advance toward $1.80-$2.00. From the chart’s $1.5625 reference price, a move to $1.80 would represent an increase of approximately 15.2%, while $2.00 would require a gain of about 28%.

The $2 region is significant because it corresponds with a horizontal area that previously acted as support during 2025. Under this scenario, XRP would retest that former support zone from below before any larger pullback develops.

XRP Is at a Weekly Decision Point

The chart shows that XRP’s current position is directly around the declining 50-week EMA, which has moved lower since the 2025 peak. Price is also approaching the lower red resistance band near $1.60.

From a technical standpoint, the next confirmation would come from XRP’s behavior around this zone. A weekly close above $1.60 would weaken the immediate rejection scenario and increase the relevance of the $1.80-$2.00 range.

Conversely, failure to hold above the 50-week EMA would keep the lower Q4 retracement scenario open.

For now, neither path is confirmed. XRP remains inside the key $1.50-$1.60 decision area, making the weekly close and subsequent follow-through the main data points to watch.