Morgan Stanley Maintains $300 SpaceX Target, Sees $600 Bull Case After Cursor Deal

Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and $300 price target for SpaceX, while valuing the stock at $600 under its most optimistic scenario.

The distinction is important. $600 is not the investment bank’s official price target. It represents a bull case that assumes stronger execution across SpaceX’s artificial-intelligence operations, Starship, orbital computing and other emerging businesses.

SpaceX shares were trading near $139 at the time of reporting. From that price, Morgan Stanley’s $300 target implies approximately 116% upside, while the $600 bull case would require an increase of about 332%.

Cursor Acquisition Expands SpaceX AI Opportunity

Morgan Stanley’s latest analysis focuses heavily on SpaceX’s planned acquisition of Anysphere, the company behind AI coding platform Cursor.

SpaceX exercised its option to acquire Anysphere in June. Under the agreement, the consideration will consist of SpaceX Class A shares based on an implied equity value of $60 billion.

According to SpaceX’s quarterly filing with the SEC, the acquisition is expected to close during the third quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approval and other closing conditions.

Morgan Stanley projects that Cursor’s annual recurring revenue will reach $8 billion by the end of 2026 and approximately $33 billion by 2030.

The bank estimates that Cursor could contribute:

• $2.5 billion to SpaceX’s revenue in 2026.
• $13 billion in 2027.
• Approximately 10% and 19% of SpaceX’s projected AI revenue in those respective years.

Morgan Stanley also expects Cursor’s gross margin to turn positive during the third quarter and reach the low-60% range by 2030.

At a SpaceX share price of approximately $139, the bank estimates that investors are assigning only about $12 per share to the company’s AI business. Morgan Stanley considers that valuation low compared with publicly traded AI-infrastructure companies.

SpaceX AI Revenue Is Growing Rapidly

SpaceX’s latest financial results show that AI has already become a significant part of its business.

Second-quarter revenue increased 92% year over year to $7.81 billion. Adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.54 billion, while the company’s net loss narrowed from approximately $1 billion to $541 million.

AI segment revenue reached $2.56 billion, increasing 247% from $737 million one year earlier. SpaceX also disclosed cloud-service agreements representing $14.1 billion in contracted sales.

However, the AI expansion continues to require enormous investment. The division reported:

• A $1.26 billion operating loss.
• Positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion.
• Capital expenditures of $15.83 billion during the quarter.

AI accounted for approximately 86% of SpaceX’s total quarterly capital expenditures of $18.37 billion.

$600 Is an Optimistic Scenario, Not a Forecast

Morgan Stanley’s valuation framework extends from a $75 bear case to a $300 base target and a $600 bull case.

The bear case assumes slower AI monetization and deployment, along with delays in SpaceX’s Starship program. The bull case depends on SpaceX successfully converting its investments in AI infrastructure, Cursor, Starship and orbital computing into substantial long-term revenue and cash flow.

Investors should therefore not interpret $600 as Morgan Stanley’s expected share price. The bank’s official target remains $300, while the unusually wide range illustrates the uncertainty involved in valuing SpaceX’s developing businesses.

What the Forecast Means for SpaceX bStock

Morgan Stanley’s valuation applies to SpaceX’s Nasdaq-listed shares rather than directly to SpaceX bStock (SPCXB).

SPCXB is designed to provide economic exposure to the underlying stock, meaning a sustained increase in SPCX would generally be expected to support the tokenized asset. However, SPCXB trades through a separate Binance order book and can temporarily move above or below the underlying share price because of differences in liquidity, demand and trading hours.

The $600 scenario therefore represents a long-term valuation possibility for SpaceX shares not a direct price prediction for SPCXB.