XRP Is Up 5% in July—What Historical Midterm Year Returns Suggest

XRP has a positive average performance record in July of every midterm year, and its price trend so far suggests a repeat.

At the time of writing, XRP trades at $1.088, down less than 1% in the past 24 hours. While it has dropped 8% from its intra-month high, it remains well above its opening price in July.

Meanwhile, historical data shows that XRP has performed well in July of every midterm year. If this is anything to go by, then higher prices could be on the horizon before this month ends.

XRP Up 5% Already

On July 1, XRP opened at $1.03, having dropped 1.8% the day before. Although the 22% dump in June made it a month to forget, a bright start to July began to change the narrative.

After the first four days, XRP pumped to a high of $1.18, its highest price this month. Although that bullish momentum has subsided, the asset has retained some of its earlier gains. 

At its current price, XRP is up approximately 5% in July. If things close at its stands, it would be the coin’s best-performing month since July 2025. History, however, suggests XRP could close higher this month.

Historical XRP Midterm Performance in July

2026 is a midterm election year in the United States. This event is held every four years and two years into a president’s tenure. During this election, the US House members and one-third of Senators go to the polls for reelection.

For XRP, July of every midterm election year has been positive on average. Since its market debut, it has traded through three midterm years and is on its fourth.

How has it performed? In July 2014, XRP rallied by 34.21% from $0.0036 to close at $0.0051. Four years later, in July 2018, the asset declined by 6.97%, dropping from $0.46 to $0.43.

The last July midterm year’s price action in 2022 was a 14.21% increase from $0.33 to $0.37. This brings the historical average performance for XRP to approximately 14%.

While there is no guarantee of a repeat, this strengthens the case for a macro relief rally this month.

Possible Scenarios and Strong Case for Repeat

XRP could trend higher if history repeats. For context, if it maintains its average 14% growth over the past three sessions, it could close at $1.18, which aligns with its current intra-month high.

In an optimistic scenario, XRP could repeat its 2014 increase and close 34% higher from its opening price. This culminates in a price of $1.39, taking the coin to price levels last seen in May.

Notably, there is a strong case backing the possibility of history repeating for XRP. In June, XRP followed its corrective trend in the midterm years. Its 22% decline was in sync with the 32% drop in June 2022, 39% correction in June 2018, and 17% pullback in June 2014.