Every Year XRP Saw Declines in Q1 and Q2, A Recovery Ensued in Q3

Market data confirms that each year XRP recorded consistent declines in Q1 and Q2, a recovery ensued during the third quarter of the year.

XRP has not escaped the ongoing downtrend that began in October 2025, down 40.17% this year alone despite the recent rebound effort in July. However, market data points to an encouraging pattern that could provide some relief in the short term.

Notably, XRP has often alternated between gains and losses in the first and second quarters of each year since it started trading in the public market in 2013. However, in rare cases where it saw consistent losses in Q1 and Q2 within a particular year, the market always delivered gains during the third quarter.

XRP Quarterly Performance in 2014

This pattern has played out three times since 2013. The first instance was in 2014 after XRP saw a strong pullback following the impressive gains recorded the previous year. Specifically, XRP first collapsed nearly 68% in Q1 2014 and then by another 57% in the second quarter of that year.

Notably, during this period, XRP saw consistent losses across multiple consecutive months, including -24.9% in January 2014, -33.62% in February 2014, -35.73% in March 2014, -38.95% in April 2014, -22.53% in May 2014, and then -8.61% in June 2014. 

However, a recovery campaign ensued in July 2014, as the market introduced a relief bounce amid the downtrend. Specifically, XRP gained 36.73% in July 2014, rising from $0.00379 to $0.00519. Despite seeing mild losses in August and September 2014, Q3 closed with a 22.9% upsurge.

XRP Quarterly Performances in 2018 and 2022

The other two times this pattern played out were during the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. After reaching the $3.31 peak in January 2018, XRP recorded its most devastating crash in recorded history over a 3-month period, leading to a massive 77.7% loss in Q1 2018.

The downtrend persisted into the next quarter. Despite an impressive 67% recovery in April 2018, the declines in subsequent months brought Q2 2018 performance to -9.1% for XRP.

While the downtrend slipped into the start of the third quarter, XRP saw a 73.6% increase in September 2018, and this was enough to offset the losses from July and August, leading to a 24.4% rebound in Q3 2018.

For the 2022 bear market, XRP first saw a mild 2.14% loss in Q1 despite gains in February and March. However, the Terra implosion resulted in steeper declines in Q2, with XRP dropping 59.4% during that quarter. Interestingly, Q3 introduced a 44.5% recovery while the bear market remained intact.

XRP Already Following the Pattern

This year, XRP has already recorded losses in the first and second quarters, with a 27.1% decline in Q1 and a 22.4% drop in Q2. This follows a 35.4% crash during Q4 2025, as the bear market drags on.

Interestingly, the asset already seems to be following the recorded pattern, as it embarks on an early recovery push in July 2026, which has put Q3 at a gain of 6.05% as of the time of reporting.

Market data suggests that XRP has seen an average gain of 17.3% in Q3 since it started trading in 2013. While Q3 has not delivered the highest average gain, this quarter appears to have seen the most consistent recoveries in history, with only three instances seeing declines in 13 years.

If XRP maintains the pattern and records at least the average 17.3% gain for this quarter, it could close the quarter with a recovery above the $1.20 level. While this may provide a glimmer of hope, there is no guarantee that Q4 will extend the rebound push.