Bitcoin Hits New Cycle Low After Bull Trap Plays Out, but Breakdown Is Not Over

Bitcoin extended its downward trend this week after a short-lived recovery earlier this month.

Its price fell to a new cycle low of around $58,075, marking the first new cycle low since BTC peaked at $126,200 in October 2025. The latest decline followed a brief rebound that initially gave bulls hope.

After dropping to approximately $59,100 on June 5, Bitcoin quickly recovered to $64,185 two days later before extending its gains to $67,248 by June 15. However, sellers soon regained control, sending the asset back toward the $58,000 region.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has recovered modestly to around $60,300. Even so, it remains down 2.35% over the past 24 hours, 21% over the past month, and about 31% year-to-date.

Support Breakdown and Rejection

Bitcoin’s recent price action has followed a textbook breakdown pattern. The asset first lost a key support level, then attempted to reclaim it during a retest but was rejected. This failed recovery reinforces the bearish outlook and suggests sellers remain firmly in control. In other words, the recent bounce appears to have been temporary.

The daily chart also shows Bitcoin trading below its former support zone. It remains below several major exponential moving averages while continuing to record fresh yearly and cycle lows.

RSI Points to Ongoing Bearish Momentum

Meanwhile, momentum indicators continue to favor the downside. The recent rebound resembles a bull trap. Although the price briefly recovered, the RSI failed to confirm the move with a bullish signal. Instead, the chart shows hidden bearish divergence, a pattern often viewed as a continuation signal during established downtrends.

Based on this setup, the RSI still has room to decline further. This suggests the broader correction may not yet be complete.

Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Still Not In

Despite Bitcoin’s recent bounce, the overall trend remains bearish. In a recent post on X, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said he does not believe Bitcoin has reached its cycle bottom.

He pointed to a log-scale chart of the 4-year rolling realized price risk/reward ratio. The chart shows Bitcoin is still trading well above its realized price, which reflects the average on-chain cost basis of investors.

In previous market cycles, Bitcoin fell to its realized price before forming a bottom. That move improved the risk/reward profile as the market approached investors’ average purchase price. Ki Young Ju said that if Bitcoin does not follow this pattern, it could mean “this time is different.”

BTC Short-Term Holder Realized Price Turns Negative

Separately, CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto said the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price YoY turned negative in mid-March, falling to around -2.4%. The metric has continued to weaken, reaching about -24% by June 23.

This means the average cost basis of short-term Bitcoin holders is now about 24% lower than it was a year ago. According to Zizcrypto, this reflects weakening momentum among short-term investors and fading speculative demand.

He noted that previous market reset phases saw much steeper declines of 55% to 65%, making the current drop relatively mild by comparison. However, he added that momentum among short-term holders has yet to show signs of a meaningful recovery, even if Bitcoin’s price stabilizes.