XRP Has Already Triggered 2 of 3 Conditions That Led to November 2024 Pump

XRP has now repeated two of the three steps that eventually led to the 580% price surge in November 2024.

The XRP price has continued to face selling pressure since hitting $1.54 earlier this month, down more than 13% from the local top. However, this pullback represents the second of three conditions that previously triggered XRP’s 580% upsurge in November 2024.

Key Points

• The XRP price has dropped more than 13% from its local top of $1.54 attained earlier in May.
• Chart data shows that this pullback is the second of three conditions that led to the 580% rally in November 2024.
• The first condition involved a breakout above a consistent descending trendline.
• Currently, XRP is retesting this trendline breakout as the second condition.
• The third condition would involve a bullish upsurge after a successful retest of the breakout.

XRP Pullback Marks Second Upsurge Condition

Mikybull, a well-known crypto analyst, flagged this pattern in one of his recent XRP price analyses. The market exposition comes as XRP continues to face persistent selling pressure on the back of a broader market correction. Currently trading for $1.3295, XRP has already dropped 13.6% from the $1.54 local top on May 14.

This downtrend is also visible on the weekly timeframe, where XRP has already recorded two consecutive bearish candles since May 11. However, Mikybull’s chart indicates that the downturn may actually be the second of three conditions that preceded the iconic November 2024 upsurge.

Three Conditions for the November 2024 Upsurge

For context, XRP witnessed one of its most bullish price surges in November 2024 following the victory secured by President Donald Trump. Nonetheless, before that, the crypto asset completed two conditions surrounding its price action that laid the foundation for that rally.

Specifically, the first condition involved a breakout above a descending trendline that had limited XRP’s upside push for 12 months. This trendline emerged after XRP dropped from the $0.92 high in July 2023, and XRP eventually broke above it when it recovered to $0.63 in July 2024.

Meanwhile, the second condition represented a retest of this trendline breakout. After soaring above $0.6, XRP faced a pullback, occasionally reaching the lower ends of the $0.5 region, as it retested the breakout. Its ability to hold above the trendline support confirmed the breakout’s strength.

Following the breakout retest, XRP witnessed a “bullish move” as the third condition, according to Mikybull. This bullish move resulted in an XRP rally from $0.5 in November 2024 to $3.4 two months later, marking a 580% price rally.

XRP Repeating the Same Pattern

This time, XRP seems to be repeating the exact pattern. After pulling back from the $3.6 peak in July 2025, another descending trendline formed amid persistent lower highs. XRP eventually broke above the trendline during the 6% weekly rally earlier this month, fulfilling the first condition.

However, after soaring to $1.54, XRP has now slipped into a correction with the rest of the crypto market. Interestingly, this correction represents the second condition before the eventual price upsurge.

If the pattern continues to play out like the last time, the third condition would be price stabilization and a rapid upsurge. “The next phase will be a bullish move,” Mikybull said. Data further shows that the weekly MACD has also repeated a structure similar to what preceded the November 2024 rally.

Important Caveat

With XRP changing hands at $1.3295, a similar 580% surge from here could push prices to a new all-time high around $9. However, it is important to note that past results do not always guarantee the previous pattern will repeat. As such, investors should manage their expectations.

There’s also the possibility that XRP may not successfully defend the breakout, which could lead to a drop back below the descending trendline. 

Notably, another prominent analyst, Ali Martinez, recently pointed out that XRP had dropped below the mid-band of its monthly parallel channel and could drop to $0.73 if it doesn’t recover that level.