Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply at Record High Despite $1.23B ETP Outflows: Bitwise

Bitcoin suffered heavy ETP outflows last week, but long-term holders have increased exposure to the crypto leader.

Data from Bitwise in Europe highlighted this mixed development for Bitcoin in a report on Monday. It highlighted that crypto assets struggled to keep pace with traditional markets last week as heavy exchange-traded product outflows weighed on sector sentiment. 

However, beneath the short-term weakness, on-chain data continues to show a different long-term trend developing. Specifically, long-term Bitcoin holders are still accumulating aggressively, tightening available supply.

Key Points

• Last week, the global crypto ETPs recorded net outflows of $1.23 billion, with Bitcoin ETPs alone accounting for $1.03 billion of that figure.
• The Bitwise Cryptoasset Sentiment Index dropped from its highest level since May 2025 back into neutral territory.
• Long-term BTC holders now control approximately 14.85 million coins, the highest ever recorded.
• Broader macroeconomic developments remain a major price catalyst for Bitcoin.

Crypto Markets Face Pressure Amid $1.23B Outflows

Last week, the global crypto ETPs recorded net outflows of $1.23 billion, with Bitcoin (BTC) investment products alone accounting for more than $1.03 billion of that figure.

Notably, US spot Bitcoin ETFs led the decline, driven by major outflows from the 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Last week’s outflows ended their six-week inflow streak.

Meanwhile, Ethereum products experienced similar pressure, recording roughly $258.7 million in outflows during the same period.

As capital rotated out of crypto products, market sentiment also deteriorated sharply. The Bitwise Cryptoasset Sentiment Index dropped from its highest level since May 2025 back into neutral territory. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index returned to “fear” conditions as risk appetite weakened across both crypto and traditional markets.

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Hit New ATH

Despite weaker short-term sentiment, on-chain metrics continue to highlight strong accumulation among long-term Bitcoin holders. Data shows that wallets holding BTC for more than 155 days now control approximately 14.85 million coins, the highest level ever recorded. Interestingly, this represents 74.3% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Historically, this type of redistribution from short-term participants to long-term holders often appears during the later stages of bear markets. It also reduces the liquid supply because long-term holders are statistically less likely to sell their coins during periods of volatility.

In addition, Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio has dropped to one of its lowest readings on record, signaling extremely limited capital movement across the network. Bitwise believes these low-liquidity conditions frequently precede larger volatility events once demand returns eventually.

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis

The asset manager also highlighted that Bitcoin trades around the critical $76,000-$80,000 range. Notably, this zone now aligns with several important technical and on-chain levels, including the short-term holder cost basis near $78,300 and the True Market Mean around $78,600.

Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average at $81,800 acts as a major overhead resistance. Bitcoin attempted to reclaim this level last week but faced rejection amid hotter-than-expected inflation readings and renewed geopolitical uncertainty.

Although market activity remains muted for now, Bitwise believes the broader setup still supports the possibility of a longer-term bottom formation over the next one to two months.

Macro Conditions Could Spark the Next Bitcoin Recovery

Beyond crypto-specific data, the report highlighted that the broader macroeconomic developments remain a major focus for Bitcoin markets. Rising Japanese bond yields and ongoing weakness in the yen have intensified concerns around sovereign debt sustainability in Japan.

The 30-year Japanese government bond yield recently reached a fresh all-time high, while the 10-year yield climbed to levels not seen since the late 1990s. Analysts warn that continued pressure in the Japanese bond market could eventually force central bank intervention.

If major central banks begin easing financial conditions to stabilize bond markets, Bitcoin could benefit from the resulting liquidity environment.

At the same time, political and regulatory developments in the United States are also drawing attention. Kevin Warsh has entered as the next Federal Reserve chair. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act also recently advanced through the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support. How these developments shape market sentiments could propel the next directional price move.