Recent Bitcoin Uptrend Not Backed by Large USDT Mints

Bitcoin has risen above the $80K mark amid an 8% price increase, but the latest uptrend lacks strong USDT minting.

The recent Bitcoin (BTC) recovery shows a change in market structure, with price gains continuing despite weaker USDT minting. This suggests stronger real demand from existing liquidity, though it may limit rapid price spikes.

Key Points:

• Bitcoin has climbed 8.22% in 12 days from $74,912, holding above $80K.
• Data shows these recent price gains occurred without major USDT minting, unlike earlier rallies.
• Earlier cycles relied on liquidity injections, while the current move appears driven by spot demand from existing liquidity.
• This suggests a healthier structure but may lead to slower, less explosive price increases.
• Key levels include $80K support and resistance around $82K-$85K.

Bitcoin Holds Above $80K After April Rebound

Verified CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn was first to highlight this trend as BTC extends its gains. For context, Bitcoin has made a steady comeback after dropping to $74,912 on April 29, moving into an uptrend defined by higher highs and higher lows.

Over the past 12 days, the asset has risen 8.22% from those April 29 lows, even though a recent pullback caused a 1.58% drop today. Despite this slight dip, Bitcoin remains above the $80,000 mark, trading at around $81,070 at press time.

Amid the uptrend, Maartunn observed that earlier rallies over the past two weeks were supported by large USDT minting events, but the price gains from the last few days have happened without similar levels of minting.

“Something’s different this time,” Maartunn said. He pointed out that earlier price increases relied on strong USDT issuance, while recent activity shows much lower minting.

What the Data Shows About the Current Rally

Data from the chart shows that from late 2024 through much of 2025, strong price increases often matched large spikes in USDT minting. These minting events usually happened just before or during price jumps, suggesting that fresh liquidity helped push prices higher.

In contrast, the recent period shows a different situation. Notably, as Bitcoin rose from $75,000, this upsurge occurred with large USDT minting seen at the beginning of the rally two weeks ago. 

Essentially, in earlier rallies, price growth depended heavily on liquidity. Newly minted USDT would enter exchanges and be used to buy Bitcoin, pushing prices up. Now, the rally is continuing without that strong inflow of new stablecoins.

This suggests that the current move is being driven by other factors, such as existing capital within the market, stronger spot buying, and possibly less selling pressure. 

Why This Change Is Important

This could be a positive sign for the market. When prices rise without heavy reliance on USDT minting, it often means the demand is more natural and stable. This can support a stronger and more lasting trend because the market is not dependent on constant liquidity injections.

At the same time, there is a downside. Specifically, without strong minting activity, it may be harder for Bitcoin to make sharp, fast moves upward. Instead, the market may continue to rise slowly, with regular pullbacks like the current 1.58% decline.

Key Levels and Analyst Views

From a technical view, $80K remains an important support level, while the $82K-$85K range acts as a key resistance zone. A move above this range would confirm that the uptrend is continuing. Events like new USDT minting, exchange inflows, and stablecoin balances could also influence the market direction.

Analyst Javon Marks believes the market still has room to grow. He says Bitcoin has shown strong performance since its breakout and may still be in the early stages of a bigger rally. He expects a possible 53% rise to about $124,697.

Another analyst, Ali Martinez, points to the 200-day simple moving average at $82,500 as an important level to watch. If Bitcoin breaks above it, the price could move toward $94,000. If it fails to break through, the price may drop back to test the 50-day SMA at $75,000.

The 200D SMA at $82,500 is acting as a key resistance level for Bitcoin $BTC.

A breakout above it could trigger a rally toward $94,000, while rejection may lead to a retest of the 50D SMA at $75,000. pic.twitter.com/i5V04cEJk1

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 11, 2026