XRP Leverage Ratio Hits Historically Low Levels: What Comes Next?

The cumulative XRP leverage ratio on Binance has dropped to historically low levels, while the XRP price remains above the $1.3 support area.

According to verified CryptoQuant author Pelinay, this indicates that real spot demand, not speculative trading, is keeping the price up. She believes a rally could follow once leverage starts climbing again.

Key Points

• XRP is holding the $1.3 support level while its leverage ratio on Binance has dropped to a historic low of 0.1.
• In October 2024, a leverage ratio of 0.1 corresponded with an XRP price of just $0.5.
• Pelinay warns that a low leverage ratio alongside a high price rarely lasts long without a quick resolution.
• Between late June and mid-July 2025, XRP surged from $1.9 to $3.66 as the leverage ratio climbed from 0.3 to 0.6.
• Pelinay believes the current low-leverage environment could trigger a rally once leverage re-enters the market.

Historical Context Shows How Unusual This Setup Is

Pelinay pointed out that what makes this situation particularly interesting is the growing gap between the leverage ratio and the price itself. She explained that when this gap widens, the market becomes unstable and usually snaps back with a sharp move in one direction. 

Right now, XRP sits at $1.3 while the estimated leverage ratio stands at just 0.1, a combination she says is too stretched to last without a major resolution.

For perspective, when the leverage ratio was at a similar level of around 0.1 in October 2024, XRP was trading at roughly $0.5. Today, XRP holds $1.3 at that same leverage level, which means the price is sitting much higher than it was the last time conditions looked like this. 

This alone tells us the market has changed, and spot demand is now doing the heavy lifting that leverage once handled.

Meanwhile, XRP’s rally to $3.6 in July 2025 shows what the opposite scenario looks like. During this run, the leverage ratio jumped from around 0.2 to nearly 0.6, meaning a massive wave of leveraged positions pushed the price higher. When the leverage unwound, the price crashed from $3.6.

XRP Eyeing a Sharp Move

Pelinay clarified that the market is no longer being fueled by leverage, and she sees this as an important signal. As the leverage ratio stays low and moves sideways while the price remains relatively high, the conditions for a move higher may already be forming beneath the surface.

The market analyst noted that historically, a low leverage ratio alongside a high price does not stay that way for long. At some point, one of two things happens: either the price falls to catch up with the ratio, or the ratio rises, and the price follows it upward.

Pelinay also pointed out that when leverage is already at low levels, any rally that begins tends to pick up speed quickly as fresh leverage flows back into the market. To her, the market is in a quiet but loaded phase right now. 

According to Pelinay, if the leverage ratio starts trending upward from here, the rise will not be slow and steady. Instead, she expects a fast, squeeze-driven move that could catch many traders off guard.

Historical data supports this theory. Notably, between late June and mid-July 2025, the leverage ratio climbed from below 0.3 to just under 0.6 in about four weeks, and over the same period, the XRP price jumped from $1.96 to $3.66.