Bitcoin Close to a Turning Point in Market Structure: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin is approaching a decisive moment in its current structure, with on-chain signals pointing to a potential shift in short-term momentum. 

The pioneering cryptocurrency has shown resilience lately, recovering from earlier dips to briefly reclaim $79,000. However, the momentum seems unsustainable, with BTC dropping to $77,120, as the broader structure remains bearish.

Per CryptoQuant author, Moreno, this could change, as Bitcoin (BTC) nears a turning point in its current market structure. One of the key indicators shaping this view is the Short-Term Holder MVRV, which has consistently mapped out the cycle’s strength and underlying weakness.

Key Points

• Bitcoin is approaching a decisive moment in its current structure, with on-chain signals pointing to a potential shift in short-term momentum.
• Since early 2024, the Short-Term Holder MVRV has formed a clear pattern of lower highs, forming a descending trendline.
• The metric is now moving back toward that same descending trendline, setting up what could be a turning point.
• At the same time, Bitcoin is nearing the Short-Term Holder Realized Price.
• A sustained move above the Realized Price, combined with MVRV stabilizing above 1.0, would point to a broader structural shift.

Market Structure Shows Repeating Pattern

The analysis highlighted that since early 2024, the Short-Term Holder MVRV has formed a clear pattern of lower highs, even as BTC continued to push upward. 

In March 2024, the metric climbed above 1.4 when Bitcoin reached a then-peak near $72,000. By November 2024, its price surged again toward $106,000, yet the indicator failed to match its previous high, signaling weakening momentum beneath the surface.

This divergence became even more pronounced in July 2025, when Bitcoin printed another high near $120,000. Despite the new price peak, the MVRV continued its downward trend, confirming steady profit-taking among short-term participants.

The result is a well-defined descending trendline that has acted as a consistent ceiling throughout the cycle.

Bitcoin MVRV And Realized Price Signal Critical Test

Meanwhile, the STH MVRV is now moving close to testing that same descending trendline, setting up what could be a turning point. At the same time, Bitcoin is nearing the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, which represents the average cost basis of recent buyers. This level often determines whether short-term holders are sitting in profit or loss.

If Bitcoin manages to move above this threshold and hold, it will shift a large portion of the market into a profitable position. That change tends to reduce selling pressure, as fewer participants are forced to exit during periods of weakness.

In contrast, failure to reclaim this level would leave the current structure intact, with rallies facing resistance and sentiment remaining cautious.

Bitcoin Outlook Depends on Confirmation

Moreno noted that what happens after this test matters more than the test itself. A sustained move above the Realized Price, combined with MVRV stabilizing above 1.0, would point to a broader structural shift. It would suggest that recent buyers are no longer a consistent source of supply, allowing bullish momentum to rebuild under stronger market conditions.

However, until that confirmation appears, the descending trendline continues to define the market’s limits. For now, it remains a barrier, and any upside attempt must overcome it before a clearer directional move can take shape.

BTC Market Remains Fragile

Additionally, sentiments stay fragile, with Bitcoin showing uncertainty. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, trading at -0.018%, signaling that US spot buyers remain cautious, hence the lack of buying pressure.

Open interest also remains modest, with a slight 1.6% increase to $55.17 billion. In the past 1 hour, this metric has drifted moderately lower, as derivative traders seem to be on the fence to observe the market. More futures outflows than inflows in the past 24 hours further support this.

Additionally, Bitcoin volume has declined 21% in the past 24 hours to $30 billion, signaling lower market participation. These indicators need to improve for Bitcoin to make any sustained move northward.