Historical Data Reveals When XRP Could Rally to $8.6

Historical data suggests XRP could record steeper declines from here, but reveals when a rally to a new all-time high could ensue.

Despite the latest recovery effort, the broader crypto market remains in a long-term downtrend, with the global crypto market cap down 18.25% this year to $2.4 trillion. Amid the turbulent phase, XRP has suffered considerable losses, having collapsed 23.8% within the same period, as it changes hands at $1.4.

While market participants anticipate a recovery effort, historical data shows XRP could still witness greater losses before eventually rebounding. However, further data suggests the rebound could push prices to $8.6 between September and December 2026.

Key Points

• XRP has dropped 23.8% year-to-date despite a recent recovery effort, currently changing hands at the $1.4 level.
• With this downward price action, XRP has been trading inside a descending channel since it dropped from the $3.6 peak in July 2025.
• XRP retested the upper trendline of the channel when it rose to $2.4 in January 2026 and retested the lower channel when it dropped to $1.11 in February 2026.
• Amid the ongoing downtrend, historical data suggests steeper declines could be possible for XRP, possibly leading below the $1 mark to again retest the channel’s lower trendline.
• However, after this, the ensuing recovery could result in a breakout above the channel, possibly leading to $8.6 by the end of the year.

XRP Trades Within Descending Channel

Celal Küçüker, a well-known chartist, called attention to this channel structure during his latest XRP analysis. For context, the lower trendline of the channel started forming after XRP pulled back from the $3.4 peak in January 2025, and acted as resistance for over six months, until XRP broke above it in July to reach the $3.6 all-time high.

Following this breakout, the lower trendline started acting as support. Interestingly, after XRP corrected from the all-time high, the upper trendline of the descending channel formed. 

Essentially, while the long-running lower trendline acted as support, the newly-formed upper trendline represented resistance. The full-blown channel, featuring both trendlines, has now run from July 2025 to the current period, guiding XRP’s price movements over the past nine months.

XRP Target Levels Within the Channel

Trading within this channel, XRP would naturally retest the resistance at the upper trendline and support at the lower trendline, as both bulls and bears attempt a breakout to either side. 

Küçüker spotlighted multiple target levels that XRP could hit amid these retests. The first target stood at the $2.4 level around the upper trendline, with the second target around $1.1 aligning with a retest of the lower trendline. From here, he suggests another retest of the upper trendline at $1.8 before a final lower trendline retest at $0.9.

At press time, XRP has claimed two of these target levels. Specifically, it retested the $2.4 upper trendline resistance in early January, and then dropped to the $1.1 low in early February. Now, Küçüker expects a rebound to again retest the upper trendline at $1.8 before another pullback to $0.9.

Historical Data Points to $8.6

Meanwhile, after the pullback to $0.9, the market analyst suggests the next recovery attempt could eventually lead to a breakout above the descending channel. Küçüker predicts this breakout to push prices to $8.6 by September to December this year, which would represent a 339% increase from the breakout price.

Interestingly, historical data supports this projection. Specifically, XRP witnessed a similar descending channel from 2023 to 2024, as the market traded in a range while facing a downward trend. After it broke out above this channel in November 2024, XRP eventually rose 339% to the $3.4 peak by January 2025.