XRP Could Reach $25, But Price Must First Respect This Key EMA

XRP could target a Fibonacci extension range from $20 to $25, but the price must first respect a pivotal EMA support level.

XRP has been under serious selling pressure since Q4 2025, as turbulence across the broader crypto market pushed the asset through a painful decline. The price has dropped 51% during this period and now sits 62% below its all-time high of $3.6, which it set in July 2025.

While this performance has shaken most short-term traders, data shows XRP could be approaching a major support zone that previously marked its bottom and preceded an explosive bull phase.

Key Points

• XRP has dropped 51% since Q4 2025 and trades 62% below its all-time high of $3.6, which it set in July 2025.
• Market data shows that during major downturns like this, XRP often finds its bottom around the 100 EMA before a massive upsurge.
• During the 2017 cycle, XRP broke out from $0.0056 in March 2017 and surged to $3.31 by January 2018 after bottoming near the 100 EMA.
• In the 2021 cycle, XRP again bottomed between $0.21 and $0.32 around the 100 EMA before climbing to $1.96 by April 2021.
• XRP currently trades around $1.38 and appears to be approaching the same macro support zone from the previous two cycles.
• Data points to two Fibonacci expansion targets: a modest range of $6 to $9 based on the 1.618 extension, and a more bullish range of $20 to $25 based on the 2.414 to 2.618 extensions.

XRP Bottomed at 100 EMA in 2017

EGRAG Crypto, a well-known market analyst, highlighted this pattern in a recent analysis. Notably, the foundation of EGRAG’s analysis is the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA). 

He stressed that this indicator represents the zone where XRP has consistently found its footing at the bottom of past market cycles, before going on to post major gains. EGRAG sees this same structure setting up once more in the current cycle.

For instance, during Cycle 1 in 2017, XRP went through a rough period that ran from Q4 2016 into early 2017, with prices fluctuating between lows of around $0.005 and $0.007. Throughout this period, XRP traded around the 100 EMA and even dipped briefly below it. 

Afterwards, the trend flipped. By March 2017, XRP broke out from $0.0056 and went on to reach $3.31 by January 2018, representing a gain of 59,000%. The highest Fibonacci extension XRP touched during that run was the 2.618 level.

Another 100 EMA Bottom in 2021

Interestingly, XRP’s behavior leading into the 2021 rally also featured another 100 EMA bottom. Specifically, from August to October 2020, XRP traded between lows of roughly $0.21 and $0.32, and those lows aligned with where the 100 EMA sat at the time. 

Following the downturn, XRP climbed to $0.7889 by November 2020, pulled back, and then pushed even higher to hit $1.96 by April 2021. The highest Fibonacci extension it reached that cycle was the 1.618 level, marking a smaller move than 2017, but still a massive one from the accumulation zone.

The fact that the 100 EMA served as the bottom in two separate cycles has now given EGRAG confidence that history could repeat. Notably, XRP currently trades around $1.38, which the analyst says is approaching that same macro support area all over again.

Two XRP Fib Scenarios Point to $6-$9 or $20-$25

EGRAG presented two possible paths from here using Fibonacci projections. The first mirrors what happened in the 2021 cycle, targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and placing XRP in a potential range of $6 to $9. 

However, the second follows the more explosive 2017 rally, targeting the 2.414 to 2.618 Fibonacci extensions, which puts XRP in a potential range of $20 to $25. EGRAG noted that hitting the higher target would depend on strong altcoin liquidity rotation and late-cycle momentum coming together at the right time.

Meanwhile, EGRAG also pointed out that XRP has been respecting a long-term ascending channel for years, where the price tends to bottom near the mid-to-lower band before rallying toward the upper channel during bull phases. Right now, XRP sits at that structural support area again.