XRP Must Hold Above the Gaussian Channel Upper Band to Keep the $13 Dream Alive

Amid the ongoing XRP price downturn, the price must hold above the upper band of the Gaussian Channel to keep the $13 dream alive.

XRP has stayed under heavy selling pressure, dropping more than 51% since the current downtrend started in Q4 2025. The token now trades at $1.39 after a steady decline that began in October 2025 and stretched into early February 2026. 

Sellers have stayed in control for months, pushing the price lower step by step. As XRP now moves sideways in a bearish setup, investors feel uncertain about where it could head next. Amid the uncertainty, data has revealed the level that must hold for the upside rally to targets such as $13 to remain in play.

Key Points

• XRP surged to a new all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025 after breaking out of a 7-year symmetrical triangle in late 2024.
• The token has since dropped 61%, slumping to $1.39 amid sustained bearish pressure that has lasted for five months.
• Price recorded a 2026 low of $1.12 in early February, flipping this area from previous resistance to support.
• Amid the downturn, market data shows XRP must hold above the $1.17 Upper Gaussian Channel to keep upside projections toward $8 and $13 in play.
• A decisive break below $1.17 could trigger a pullback toward the mid Gaussian Channel around $0.73.
• Previous retests of the mid-Gaussian Channel have historically marked major bottoms before strong upward expansions.

The Breakout That Sent XRP to $3.66

This analysis came from Chart Nerd, who recently presented what he called a data-driven exposition of the current market position, free from the everyday noise. Notably, he called attention to a multi-year fractal pattern that showed a clear breakout in late 2024. 

During this period, XRP broke above long-standing descending resistance that had capped price action for years. The move pushed the price above the upper trendline of a 7-year symmetrical triangle, indicating that it had engineered a major change in its long-term structure.

After the November 2024 surge, XRP rallied to $3.66 by July 2025, marking a new all-time high. However, that peak was followed by steady selling pressure. Bears dragged the price down to $1.39, where it currently trades, representing a 61% drop from the ATH.

Why the $1.12 and $1.17 Levels Matter

Chart Nerd explained that the decline from the July 2025 high created what he sees as a backtest of the previous breakout zone. The area that once acted as resistance before the November 2024 rally has now turned into support. For context, amid the downtrend, XRP touched the $1.12 area and rebounded, confirming that buyers are trying to defend it as support.

Meanwhile, XRP dropped the Upper regression band of the Gaussian Channel at $1.17. This bolsters the support at this level. According to Chart Nerd, as long as XRP stays above the $1.17 Upper Gaussian Channel level, the short-term parabolic outlook remains in place. If the support holds, price projections still point toward $8 and even $13.

The Risk If $1.17 Fails

Chart Nerd called $1.17 the key line bulls must protect. Holding above it keeps the path open for a move toward $8 and $13. However, if XRP breaks clearly below $1.17, he expects a deeper pullback. In such a case, the price could drop to test the mid-Gaussian Channel area around $0.73 before any larger upside move begins.

A fall to $0.73 would also mean XRP re-enters the 8-year symmetrical triangle it previously broke out from. This move could highlight a multi-year ascending support point of control. However, past retests of the mid-Gaussian Channel regression band have marked every major bottom and accumulation phase before XRP launched into sharp upward moves.

Chart Nerd believes much of the recent damage has already happened. Still, he insists that $1.17 acts as the guardrail for any short-term recovery. If XRP holds that level, the dream of reaching $13 stays alive. If it loses that support, traders may have to prepare for a deeper move toward $0.73 before the next major expansion begins.