Bitcoin Whale Flows into Binance Hit 2-Year Peak: How Could Price React?

Bitcoin whale inflows to the Binance exchange recently spiked to their highest level since 2024, with potential impact on prices.

The crypto market has stayed under pressure since Q4 2025, and the weakness has wiped out $2 trillion in value. The total market cap has fallen from $4.27 trillion in October 2025 to $2.27 trillion today, with Bitcoin accounting for $1.18 trillion of the total, or about 59%.

As prices slide, large holders have started moving funds to exchanges. On-chain data shows that whales have increased transfers to Binance.

• The total crypto market cap has dropped from $4.27 trillion in October 2025 to $2.27 trillion, erasing $2 trillion in value.
• Bitcoin accounts for $1.18 trillion of that loss, or about 59%, and trades around $67,000.
• Amid the decline, whale inflows to Binance pushed the 30-day average to approximately $8.3 billion, the highest level since 2024.
• The market has recorded such spikes in inflows three times since 2025, and Bitcoin’s price dropped two out of those three times.
• Most recently, in October 2025, inflows rose from roughly $3 billion to $7.7 billion, coinciding with a Bitcoin price drop from $126,000 to $80,000.

Bitcoin Whale Flows to Binance Hit $8.3 Billion

Arab Chain, a verified analyst at CryptoQuant, pointed out this trend and explained why it matters for the market’s next move. He reported that the 30-day average of whale inflows to Binance has climbed to about $8.3 billion, marking the highest level since 2024.

According to him, when the 30-day average rises this quickly, it often shows that big holders may plan to sell or adjust their positions, especially when prices look weak. At the time of his reading, Bitcoin traded near $66,400, 47% below its all-time high. He suggested that possible selling pressure could be one reason prices have struggled.

Possible Selloffs?

However, Arab Chain clarified that the Bitcoin whale exchange inflow spike does not automatically mean a massive sell-off has started. Notably, whales might simply move funds to manage liquidity, use derivatives, or prepare for larger trades ahead. 

Despite confirming this, he pointed out that past jumps in the 30-day average often line up with periods of higher volatility or changes in market structure. He also noted that this latest surge came after a stretch of stable whale flows, which may indicate a change in sentiment among large investors.

If inflows keep rising, more supply could hit exchanges and push prices lower in the short term. Nonetheless, if inflows begin to fall again, this development could indicate the end of distribution and the return of confidence.

Past Bitcoin Whale Flow Spikes Often Came Before Price Drops

Meanwhile, historical chart data shows that Bitcoin whale inflows have surged suddenly about three times since 2025, though not as strongly as now. In two of those three cases, Bitcoin’s price fell soon after.

The first case happened in January 2025 when Bitcoin crossed $100,000. As the price climbed to $107,000 in late January, whale inflows jumped from around $3 billion to about $7 billion. Soon after, Bitcoin dropped to $76,000 by mid-March. During that decline, whale inflows began to fall sharply.

A similar pattern appeared in early October 2025. Specifically, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 that month. Around the same time, whale inflows rose from about $3 billion in early October to roughly $7.7 billion by late November. As inflows increased, Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to $80,000 in late November. 

After that drop, inflows eased again before rising to current levels. The major difference now is that this latest spike has occurred while Bitcoin already trends lower, not during a strong rally. This leaves the market unsure about how the price will respond this time.

UniCredit on Bitcoin

Elsewhere, Italian multinational bank UniCredit recently suggested that Bitcoin’s recent weakness comes from soft market sentiment and wider macro pressures. Even though easing U.S. regulatory concerns have reduced policy risk, confidence has not fully returned. Thomas Strobel, a strategist at UniCredit, said he keeps a neutral view on Bitcoin.

Strobel places Bitcoin’s fair value around $75,000. He warned that a drop of about 35% from that level, especially if the price stays below $50,000, could indicate a bigger change in the market. To him, any strong recovery would need better sentiment, rising ETF inflows, and stronger liquidity.