Expert Says XRP Could Make a Parabolic Move Most people are Not Prepared For

Historical data points to a potential upsurge for XRP as its volatility hits lows the market last witnessed in June 2024.

XRP has not escaped the crypto market turbulence that began in Q4 2025, down more than 61% from its all-time high of $3.66 to the current price of $1.41. During this period, XRP has recorded four consecutive monthly losing candles and is on track to witness the fifth one, down 13.44% this month.

However, market data indicates that the downturn may now be losing steam, as market losses slow. This has led to a massive decline in XRP’s historical volatility indicator. Specifically, the indicator has dropped to 96 at press time. The last time the metric hit these lows was in June 2024 as it moved close to a bottom. The November 2024 rally followed shortly after.

Key Points

• While XRP has declined 61% from its all-time high since the ongoing turbulence began, market data shows the downturn may be slowing down.
• This slowdown has led to reduced losses and consolidation with mild gains across multiple timeframes.
• Amid the slowdown, XRP’s historical volatility has reached a low of 96, representing levels last witnessed in June 2024. 
• When the historical volatility indicator dropped to similar lows in June 2024, it marked the bottom for the downtrend, with XRP surging by November 2024.
• Data suggests XRP could record a rally similar to its 2017 run if the trend plays out as expected.

XRP Historical Volatility Hits Extreme Lows

This idea came from Austin, an XRP community figure and market commentator, as XRP struggles to maintain its hold above $1.4. Now trading for $1.41, XRP is down 25% this year but appears to be demonstrating greater resilience than other assets such as Ethereum.

With the downturn now slowing down, Austin confirmed that XRP’s historical volatility indicator has hit extreme lows. For context, the Historical Volatility indicator shows how much an asset’s price has moved in the past. It helps traders gauge how calm or how turbulent the market has been, based purely on previous price changes.

In an earlier commentary, Austin pointed out that historical volatility had dropped to a 20-month low of 96. The last time the metric hit this extreme low was in June 2024, when XRP dropped to $0.45. Weeks later, XRP slumped further to $0.38, and this marked the bottom. After four months, XRP engineered the November 2024 rally.

Interestingly, Austin highlighted that XRP has dropped to this extreme low historical volatility while its price has witnessed higher lows compared to the June 2024 bottom. He believes this is interesting. According to him, this indicates that the market may be building pressure. He expects the compression to lead to expansion, predicting it could send XRP to price discovery.

A Possible Rally Similar to the 2017 Run

In a follow-up analysis, Austin also highlighted that the historical volatility is following an ABCDE wave structure within a contracting triangle. The recent drop to 96 marked the conclusion of Wave E, and the analyst expects an upward breakout to occur from here, resulting in the price expansion.

He projected that the imminent expansion could lead to a rally similar to the 2017 run. For context, XRP soared from $0.0050 in February 2017 to a peak of $3.31 by January 2018. This represented a 66,100% increase within a year.

According to Austin, if XRP’s price breaks out with the historical volatility metric to retest the 2017 highs around $3.3, a more parabolic surge could play out, potentially leading to a rally similar to the 2017 run. Notably, if XRP saw the 66,000% rise from the current price, its value could reach $925. However, this surge will likely not reach this extent.