XRP Has Now Completed Its ABC Irregular Flat Wave, with Next Wave Eyeing $5.85

XRP has now completed the ABC corrective structure under Wave 4, with the next wave looking to bring a recovery push toward a new all-time high.

The XRP price has struggled over the past few months, having lost the $3 and $2 psychological levels to trade at $1.38 as of press time. The downturn spilled into this year, with XRP down 24.81% year-to-date. However, chart data suggests this bearish phase is a natural response to an earlier Wave 3 rally.

Specifically, the downtrend represents an ABC irregular flat wave within a larger Wave 4 correction for XRP. Further data now confirms that XRP may have completed this corrective wave, with the forthcoming Wave 5 targeting a rally to $5.85, a new all-time high.

Key Points

• XRP has struggled in the last few months, having relinquished the important psychological support levels around $3 and $2.
• Chart data confirms that this ongoing downtrend followed a Wave 3 rally that pushed XRP to $3.4 in January 2025.
• XRP now appears to be trading within a corrective Wave 4 pattern, which features a smaller ABC irregular flat that has now taken prices to $1.3.
• Further data suggests that the ongoing corrective wave may be close to an end, as XRP completes the ABC irregular flat.
• What could follow is a recovery from Wave 5, the last phase of the Elliott Wave structure, with XRP looking to claim $5.85 as an ultimate target.

This idea came from Dark Defender, a well-known XRP market commentator, as XRP battles to recover some of the losses of the past weeks. Specifically, data from the accompanying chart confirms that the ongoing market turbulence forms part of a broader 5-phase Elliott Wave structure that began as far back as July 2022.

Notably, Wave 1 began as XRP sought to rebound from the $0.31 low amid the Terra implosion of May 2022. Wave 1 helped XRP recover some of the losses, rising from $0.31 in July 2022 to a local top of $0.94 by July 2023, marking the end of the wave. It bears mentioning that the pivotal July 2023 ruling in the SEC vs Ripple case contributed mostly to the $0.94 peak.

From here, XRP slipped into Wave 2, which triggered a pullback from $0.94 to a low of $0.38 by July 2024. Wave 3 began immediately after, bringing relief to the bulls. Interestingly, Wave 3 marked the largest phase, resulting in an XRP rally from $0.38 in July 2024 to $3.34 by January 2025. This marked a 794% increase within six months.

XRP Now Within Wave 4

Since the $3.34 peak, XRP has struggled as the market tries to find a new capital influx for another sustained uptrend. Notably, within this period, XRP has also witnessed occasional upsurges like the jump to $3.66 in July 2025, but these surges have not been sustainable.

According to the chart, XRP now trades within Wave 4 amid the ongoing struggles. This corrective Wave 4 resolved into an ABC irregular flat structure that has defined XRP’s price action since January 2025. Specifically, sub-Wave A aligned with a price drop from the $3.4 high to a $1.61 low in April 2025.

After this, sub-Wave B emerged with a rebound push, taking XRP to the $3.66 all-time high by July 2025. What followed was a massive dump from sub-Wave C. This sub-Wave C has endured until now, triggering a 62% collapse from the $3.66 peak, as XRP now trades for $1.38 at press time.

Wave 5 Recovery Could Push Prices to $5

According to Dark Defender, XRP appears to have completed the ABC sub-structure within the corrective Wave 4. He suggested that Wave 5 may now begin playing out. However, XRP would need to find a solid bottom and begin a recovery push to slip into Wave 5. This would demand strength from the broader market.

Dark Defender expects the Wave 5 to eventually take XRP to a peak of $5.85, aligning with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level. Notably, this would represent a 323.9% increase from XRP’s current price.