XRP Holds Long-Term EMA Structure as Historically Bullish Price Behavior Reappears

The XRP monthly chart shows the altcoin repeating a historically bullish price behavior as it holds above the 21 EMA.

Data from the chart confirms that this historically bullish behavior, which has emerged multiple times over the past decade, often sees XRP move through three phases in each cycle involving an initial consolidation, a price expansion, and then a correction. 

Interestingly, one of the necessary requirements for XRP to sustain this pattern is holding above the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA). Amid the current price action, XRP has held above this indicator, suggesting that the pattern may again be playing out.

Key Data Points

• XRP has historically followed a bullish price pattern that involves an initial consolidation, an expansion, and then a subsequent correction.
• For this pattern to play out, XRP must hold above the 21 EMA during the subsequent correction.
• This pattern emerged from 2014 to 2017, pushing XRP to a high of $3.31, and then from 2018 to 2021, reaching a high of $1.96.
• While XRP has struggled since the $3.6 peak during the current cycle, it has held above the 21 EMA, suggesting that the historical pattern may again play out.

XRP’s Historical Price Behavior Around this Pattern

EGRAG Crypto, a well-known chartist, called attention to this pattern in a recent market commentary. Data from his chart shows that between 2014 and early 2017, XRP spent several years moving sideways, with the price trading within the $0.004 and $0.29 range. 

During this period, the 21-month EMA remained flat, confirming that the market moved with weak momentum amid an extended consolidation. However, this consolidation phase ended in Q2 2017, when XRP broke above the 21 EMA and began a strong upward trend, leading to the expansion.

Amid the expansion, the price climbed to a peak around $3.31 in January 2018, representing a 981% rise. However, a sharp correction followed, but the chart shows that XRP eventually stabilized above earlier macro lows, preserving its broader market structure.

From 2018 through 2020, XRP moved through the corrective phase. During this time, price repeatedly pulled back toward the rising 21 EMA. EGRAG highlighted these moments using white and green circles on the chart. 

After respecting the 21 EMA during the correction, XRP launched another impulsive move that carried the price into April 2021, where it topped at around $1.96. Data from the chart shows that this measured push led to a 157% increase. Another pullback followed after this peak.

XRP Now Following a Similar Pattern

EGRAG explained that, historically, each pullback followed the same pattern: momentum cooled, structure held, buyers stepped in early, and price formed higher lows. He believes this behavior is structural consolidation, not market weakness. Interestingly, XRP appears to be following this pattern now amid the ongoing consolidation.

The analyst believes XRP’s price action is following a 5-wave structure. According to him, Wave (1) began in late 2023, with the price lifting from the $0.50 to $0.60 area. Wave (2) followed in early 2024 as a corrective pullback that maintained macro support. 

Meanwhile, Wave (3) then played out from late 2024, after the November 2024 upsurge, pushing XRP above $3.4 by January 2025. Currently, XRP trades within Wave (4), which involves a correction and subsequent consolidation.

Currently, XRP trades near $2.06, consolidating above the rising 21-month EMA. EGRAG pointed out that this phase resembles previous Wave 4 periods, in which price retraced modestly without breaking the broader trend. If XRP continues to follow this pattern, it could repeat a rally similar to the 2017 and 2021 spikes.

According to EGRAG, if it replicated the 2017 rise, prices could reach $33. Meanwhile, a repeat of the 2021 upsurge would push the price to $8. Considering these, the analyst came up with an average XRP target of $20.

Invalidation Criteria

However, EGRAG highlighted what could invalidate the pattern. According to him, the structural thesis would fail if XRP lost its macro support and broke decisively below its long-term structure. The chart shows that this has not happened, but there is no guarantee. As of the latest monthly candle, XRP continues to hold above rising structural support.