US Unemployment Rate Rises Higher Than Expected: What This Means for Bitcoin

Bitcoin has remained under pressure below the $90,000 level, and traders now focus on U.S. economic data to determine where prices may head next. 

Analysts believe recent labor market figures and upcoming inflation data will determine how the Federal Reserve sets policy in January 2026, making these releases especially important for Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

Notably, BTC has gone through a rough stretch in recent months. After surging to the all-time high of $126,272 in October 2025, the premier crypto asset has struggled to maintain momentum since then. Selling pressure has intensified over the past two months, with prices forming lower highs. 

Bitcoin now trades at $87,161, which places it 31% below its October peak. December has added to the weakness, as the token has declined 3.57% so far this month. If the trend holds, Bitcoin will post its third straight monthly loss for the first time since the Terra collapse in mid-2022.

US Unemployment Rises Higher Than Expected

While Bitcoin battles bearish pressure, U.S. labor market data have presented some limited relief. Today, the U.S. government released the November Employment Situation report after a delay caused by the shutdown. The data showed the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, its highest level since September 2021.

The figure came in above expectations. Specifically, in September 2025, the unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, which served as the last complete reading before the shutdown disrupted data collection. Economists had expected unemployment to remain between 4.4% and 4.5%, making the rise to 4.6% a notable surprise.

Job creation data was mixed. Notably, nonfarm payrolls increased by 64,000 jobs in November, recovering from a sharp loss of 105,000 jobs in October. This earlier decline largely came from federal government payroll cuts ranging between 162,000 and 168,000 positions, driven by deferred resignations and shutdown-related disruptions. 

Meanwhile, November’s payroll growth exceeded lowered forecasts of 45,000 to 50,000 jobs, but it still indicated a cooling labor market.

On wage data, average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% from the previous month, well below the 0.3% economists expected. Annually, wages increased 3.5%, marking the slowest pace since May 2021 and aligning with pre-pandemic levels. 

Speaking on the latest release, Kay Haigh from Goldman Sachs Asset Management said the Federal Reserve would likely place limited weight on the November report because of data disruptions. According to her, December’s employment report, due in early January, would carry more influence over near-term policy decisions.

How Could This Impact Bitcoin?

Before the data release, research platform Bull Theory emphasized that the jobs report and the upcoming CPI release would play a decisive role in shaping Fed policy for 2026. The platform warned about the growing risk of stagflation, where inflation stays elevated while unemployment continues to rise. 

TODAY’S JOBS DATA AND THIS WEEK’S CPI WILL DECIDE FED POLICY FOR 2026.

This is not just another data update.
This is about where the U.S. economy is heading next.

Today, the U.S. unemployment rate will be released.

The market expects 4.4%.

This is the first major labor data… pic.twitter.com/bvZFSuheix

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) December 16, 2025

As inflation pushes near 3% and unemployment climbs, Bull Theory argued that a reading above 4.4% would confirm labor market weakness. The platform said a move toward 4.6% or higher would change market focus from stagflation to outright recession risk.

Bull Theory also explained that the Fed faces a difficult balancing act. Specifically, high inflation argues for tighter policy, while weakening jobs push the central bank toward easing. According to the platform, markets react not to individual data points but to how inflation and employment trends move together.

After the release confirmed unemployment at 4.6%, Bull Theory stated that the rate had reached a four-year high and claimed the Fed had made a policy mistake. They argued that further rate cuts and renewed liquidity through quantitative easing are now the most likely path forward, which they view as positive for crypto.

Meanwhile, in the 30 minutes before the report, Bitcoin fell 1.05%. After the release, the price rebounded 0.57% in the following half hour and gained another 0.21%. BTC briefly touched $87,347 before momentum slowed. It now trades around $87,161 as investors try to determine what policy the Fed would favor in 2026.