Bitcoin is at risk of posting its worst performance in November in six years, as monthly red candles continue from where they left off in October.
November has historically been the month where Bitcoin performs the best on average since 2013. Data from CoinGlass shows an average 42% growth for the crypto leader at the start of the month, reestablishing the “Moonvember” narrative.
Bears Set to Disrupt Pattern?
Further bolstering bulls’ confidence was Bitcoin’s performance in the two Novembers before this, as it grew by 37% and 8.8% in 2024 and 2023, respectively. Furthermore, the narrative that BTC will rally beyond this year added to the optimism, as the “business cycle” sentiment gained momentum.
However, Bitcoin has picked up from where it left off in October. CoinGlass data shows that BTC has retraced by 16.5% so far in November, even outpacing its losses in the previous month by over fourfold.
With the “Uptober” party postponed, the November bullish reputation is also at risk unless the unexpected happens in the next 11 days. In the meantime, Bitcoin is on pace to record its worst November performance since 2019, when it retraced by 17.27%.
ETF Underperformance Adds Pressure on Bitcoin
Meanwhile, whale activities are not making things easy for Bitcoin so far. Specifically, Bitcoin OGs are reawakening to liquidate holdings, short-term holders are selling even at a loss, and now Bitcoin spot ETF outflows have intensified.
Data from Sosovalue shows that the Bitcoin ETFs are on a five-day outflow streak, selling $2.26 billion in BTC during this period. Yesterday, the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) sold a staggering $523 million worth of Bitcoin, the largest ever intraday outflow by a single issuer since the products launched.
On-chain data has spotlighted another BlackRock Bitcoin shift to exchanges today, suggesting the outflow may not be ending soon. The asset manager deposited 6,735 BTC ($616 million) into Coinbase a few hours ago, further dampening market sentiment.
Bitcoin Could Still Recover Before Year-End
Despite these developments, analyses suggest Bitcoin may trade higher in the coming days. For perspective, Santiment shared the view that Bitcoin is in an extreme buy opportunity zone, pointing to an imminent rebound. The firm also added that retail dumps also fuel the prospects of a recovery, noting that prices tend to move in the opposite direction of small wallet sentiments.
Furthermore, YoungHoon Kim, who claims to hold the world’s highest IQ, predicted that Bitcoin would rally to a new all-time high of $220,000 by the year’s end, a forecast that closely aligns with that of FundStrat’s Tom Lee.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
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