Experts Say XRP Faces Far Lower Quantum Risk Than Bitcoin, With Just 0.03% of XRP Supply Exposed vs. 35% of BTC

Amid growing concerns about the impact of quantum computing on blockchain security, experts now argue that XRP may be structurally less exposed to future quantum attacks than Bitcoin.

Quantum computing has increasingly emerged as a long-term challenge for blockchain networks. This concern intensified after Google indicated that sufficiently powerful quantum machines might require less computational power than previously estimated to exploit existing cryptographic systems. 

Consequently, researchers and industry experts have begun reassessing how major blockchains could withstand such threats. In this context, experts highlight that the account-based architecture of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) offers several structural advantages over Bitcoin’s design. 

Recent analyses suggest that only about 0.03% of XRP’s supply appears vulnerable under current conditions. Meanwhile, an estimated 35% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply could theoretically face exposure. 

Key Points

• Experts suggest XRP may be structurally less exposed to potential quantum attacks than Bitcoin due to differences in blockchain architecture. 
• Current estimates indicate that only about 0.03% of XRP’s circulating supply appears vulnerable to theoretical quantum attacks.
• Google suggests that around 35% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply could be exposed under similar assumptions. 
• Developers in the XRP and Bitcoin ecosystems are actively exploring quantum-resistant cryptographic upgrades.  

Only 0.03% of XRP Supply Faces Quantum Attack Risk 

Earlier this week, prominent XRPL dUNL validator Vet conducted a quick review of the ledger for quantum vulnerabilities. He found that roughly 300,000 XRP accounts holding about 2.4 billion XRP have never sent transactions. Since these accounts have only received funds, their public keys have never been exposed on-chain. As a result, they remain quantum-safe by default.

However, the analysis identified two dormant accounts that had previously transacted, thereby exposing their public keys. Together, these accounts hold 21 million XRP, which represents roughly 0.03% of the circulating supply.

Even so, Vet explained that these accounts could still mitigate risk by using XRPL’s key-rotation feature. This function allows users to update the signing key associated with an account without moving the funds, effectively replacing a compromised key while keeping the assets in place.

In addition, Mayukha Vadari, a software engineer at Ripple’s development arm RippleX, pointed to XRPL’s escrow functionality as another protective mechanism. He explained that escrow locks funds using time-based logic rather than cryptography alone. 

Therefore, the system prevents withdrawals until a predefined time has passed. Although escrow does not eliminate account-level risk, it reduces attackers’ incentives to access the funds, as they cannot access them immediately. 

Bitcoin Faces Severe Quantum Risks 

While these experts suggest that XRPL may offer stronger structural resistance to quantum threats, Vet emphasized that the situation appears more challenging for Bitcoin.

Specifically, he mentioned that early Bitcoin transaction formats, particularly Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) outputs, revealed public keys directly in transaction data. Many of these coins, including those widely attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, have remained unmoved for years, leaving their keys permanently exposed.

According to estimates cited by Google, nearly 7 million BTC, or about 35% of Bitcoin’s supply, could theoretically become vulnerable if quantum computers become powerful enough to exploit these exposed keys.

Moreover, Bitcoin currently lacks a native key-rotation mechanism. As a result, users must transfer funds to a new address to secure them. However, during this transfer, the transaction temporarily exposes the public key while it waits in the network’s mempool. In theory, a powerful quantum computer could exploit that brief window.

Despite these concerns, the threat remains largely theoretical for now. Developers in the Bitcoin ecosystem have already begun researching and proposing upgrades to introduce quantum-resistant cryptographic schemes.

Meanwhile, researchers have also acknowledged that XRPL has taken early steps toward quantum resilience. These efforts include testing post-quantum ML-DSA signatures and creating experimental environments designed to evaluate quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms.