XRP Nears Falling Channel Breakout, Eyes $4.06 Target

XRP could be eyeing a breakout from a multi-month falling channel pattern, with the mid-term breakout target sitting above $4.

While XRP has staged a short-term relief bounce, up more than 3.55% in the last 24 hours, it remains within the downtrend that has endured since July 2025. However, data shows this downturn has resulted in a multi-month falling channel, and a breakout could lead to new all-time highs.

Key Points

• The ongoing downtrend puts XRP within a multi-month falling channel.
• XRP has collapsed 63% within this pattern since July 2025 despite the recent relief bounce.
• Attempts to breach the channel in October 2025, January 2026, and March 2026 proved futile.
• XRP witnessed a similar channel in 2025, before a breakout led to the $3.6 all-time high in July.
• Chart data shows a breakout above the current channel could push prices above $4.

XRP Down Despite Relief Bounce

Market commentator Don called the public’s attention to this structure in one of his latest analyses, as XRP attempts a relief bounce from recent lows. For context, after dropping to a floor price of around $1.27 over the weekend, XRP staged a recovery effort.

From the $1.27 low, XRP has rebounded 5.51%, breaking a streak of intraday losses yesterday and maintaining the upward push to today. As a result, the crypto asset has gained 3.55% in the past 24 hours, trading for $1.34 and looking to comfortably sit above the $1.35 area.

Despite the progress made, chart data shows XRP remains in a massive downtrend when zoomed out. Notably, this downward trend began after the collapse from $3.6 in July 2025, with XRP down 63% from that peak and recording lower highs and lower lows.

XRP’s Falling Channel 

This sequence of lower highs and lower lows has now resulted in the formation of a falling channel on the daily chart, as highlighted by Don’s analysis. “Where is the XRP army?” The market commentator asked, as data from his chart shows that XRP may now be close to a breakout from this channel.

Notably, the channel features an upper descending trendline that has acted as resistance and a lower descending trendline that maintains support. However, due to its nature as a falling channel, the resistance and support levels have continuously lowered amid lower highs and lower lows.

A breakout from this channel would mean an end to the ongoing downtrend and a change in momentum. XRP has attempted to initiate this breakout multiple times since the downturn began. 

First, XRP aimed to break out when it soared to $3.18 in September 2025, but the price faced resistance at the upper trendline. The same roadblock stood firm when XRP rose to $3.10 in early October 2025, $2.41 in January 2026, and most recently, $1.6 in March 2026. Each attempt met resistance at the upper trendline.

Historical Data Shows Bullish Potential 

Currently, XRP trades at the upper end of the falling channel, indicating that further price upswings above $1.5 could bring it back to retest the upper trendline. With XRP now close to the peak of the channel, the chances of a breakout have increased.

Should a breakout ensue from the current position, Don believes XRP could flip the current momentum to bullish and eye a new all-time high. Specifically, the market analyst projects a possible run to $4.0685, representing a 203% increase from the current price.

Notably, his projection takes a cue from historical data surrounding a previous falling channel. XRP witnessed this structure after falling from the $3.4 peak in January 2025 and recorded lower highs and lower lows for months until a breakout ensued in July 2025. This breakout pushed prices to the all-time high of $3.6.