XRP Remains Weak, as 5-Wave Structure Targets Cycle Bottom

Market data confirms XRP remains weak, with a current 5-wave structure potentially leading to the cycle bottom.

XRP has continued to struggle after its recent recovery attempt. The price climbed to $1.6 on March 17, but it could not hold that level and has since dropped to $1.3. This move marks a 17.5% decline from the recent high, while the asset is now down 28.49% since the start of the year.

Key Points

• XRP has dropped from the March 17 high of $1.6 to $1.3, marking a 17.5% correction and extending its yearly decline to 28.49%.
• The price has faced repeated rejections near the $1.53 Fibonacci 0.382 level, confirming weak buying strength.
• XRP’s correction from the March 17 high takes the form of a 5-phase Elliott Wave structure, potentially leading to the cycle bottom.
• XRP now trades in Wave 3, which could push prices to a low of $1.07.
• A Wave 4 rebound toward $1.22-$1.31 could then ensue, before a final Wave 5 drop to $0.8621, marking the projected cycle bottom.

Recent XRP Price Action Shows Continued Weakness

Market analyst Casi highlighted this amid XRP’s consistent downtrend. The steady drop shows that the earlier recovery did not change the overall trend. Buyers have not been able to build strong momentum, and each attempt to push higher has failed. As a result, the market still leans bearish.

Casi believes XRP remains weak and expects the price to keep moving toward lower support levels. According to her, the decline has taken time, but the direction has stayed the same. She noted that the slow pace of the move has made it frustrating, but it has not changed the bigger picture.

The market analyst stressed that one major issue XRP faces is how weak each bounce has been. Every small recovery has stopped around the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level, showing that sellers step in quickly. 

After XRP hit $1.6 on March 17, it dropped to $1.49 that same day and tried to move back up. However, it ran into resistance near $1.53, which matches the 0.382 Fibonacci level. The price then made two more attempts, reaching $1.5410 at 19:00 UTC on March 17 and $1.5418 at 04:00 UTC on March 18, but both moves failed and led to further declines.

Selling Momentum Building

More recently, selling pressure has started to increase again, Casi confirmed. She pointed out that, within an hour, the market has shown signs that sellers are becoming more active, suggesting that the current slow decline may soon speed up.

Right now, XRP is trying to hold around $1.31, but this level represents the future resistance zone, aligning with the Wave 4 peak. The price slowing down at this point makes sense, as resistance often limits upward movement. If XRP drops below $1.31, the decline could become much faster and more aggressive.

XRP Elliott Wave Leading to $0.86 Bottom

Data from the chart shows that XRP has continued to follow a five-phase Elliott Wave pattern since dropping from the $1.6 peak on March 17. The first wave emerged after XRP pulled back from $1.6, taking the price from $1.6 to $1.36 by March 23.

After that, Wave 2 brought a short recovery, with the price rising from $1.36 to $1.46 within the same day. However, this bounce did not last long, and the price turned lower again. 

XRP has now entered Wave 3, which is often the strongest part of the downward move. This phase could push the price down to around $1.07, aligning with the Fibonacci 1.618 extension level. This would represent a further 18% drop from the current price.

If XRP reaches $1.07, it could find some support and move into Wave 4, which would bring a temporary recovery. During this phase, the price could rise to between $1.22 (Fibonacci 0.328) and $1.31 (Fibonacci 0.618).

After that, the final stage, Wave 5, could push the price lower again, possibly down to about $0.8621, which lines up with the Fibonacci 0.854 level. Casi has repeatedly suggested that this level likely represents the bottom for the current downtrend.

Interestingly, this entire five-wave pattern is part of a larger corrective Wave 2 that has been developing since the broader market started declining in late 2025. Overall, the outlook has not changed, and XRP still appears to be moving toward one last drop before it can form a solid bottom.