XRP Needs to Defend This Ascending Support Trendline to Keep the $8 Hope Alive

XRP must defend a multi-year ascending support trendline to maintain a bullish stance and keep the $8 hope alive.

XRP has remained under strong selling pressure since the downtrend began in Q4 2025, falling more than 52% during this period. The price dropped 16.32% in February 2026, marking its fifth consecutive monthly loss for the first time since 2017, with a sixth straight decline possible if weakness continues. 

However, chart data indicates that the downtrend is likely a normal correction within a broader bull market. At this point, XRP must defend its long-standing ascending support trendline around $0.8 and break above a descending resistance trendline to revive momentum toward $8.

Key Points 

• XRP has fallen more than 52% since Q4 2025 and posted a 16.32% loss in February 2026, marking five straight monthly declines for the first time since 2017.
• Market data suggests that XRP may be trading within a Wave C correction, following its Wave B peak at $3.66 in July 2025.
• This correction fits within a normal market pattern, and XRP must defend its ascending support trendline to keep hopes of a recovery alive.
• A drop below the trendline and a weekly close below Fib. 0.786 at $0.6248 could expose XRP to a deeper downside toward $0.3855 and $0.2087 to $0.0956.
• On the upside, XRP must break resistance around a descending resistance trendline to push toward a minimum target of $8, and potentially $27.

XRP Repeating a Familiar ABC Pattern 

This is according to a recent analysis from market watcher CoinsKid. Notably, he called attention to XRP on the weekly chart and pointed out similarities to the ABC correction that unfolded between 2021 and 2023. 

Back then, XRP climbed to $1.96 in April 2021 before dropping to $0.51 in July 2021, forming Wave A. It then bounced to $1.41 in September 2021 for Wave B, only to fall to $0.30 in January 2022 in Wave C. 

The analyst believes a similar pattern may be forming now. Specifically, XRP peaked at $3.4 in January 2025, then fell to $1.61 by April 2025 to complete Wave A. Wave B pushed prices higher again, reaching a new all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025. Since then, Wave C has taken over, dragging XRP down to $1.35, and this phase may not be over yet.

The Ascending Trendline Around $0.85 Is Crucial

Interestingly, CoinsKid mentioned an important ascending support trendline that has guided XRP since 2018 as the key focus of his analysis. Right now, that support sits near $0.85, and the market watcher argues that XRP must defend this area to keep the bullish case intact.

In the past, XRP touched this trendline several times and bounced. Notably, it did so at $0.11 in March 2020, $0.17 in December 2020, $0.30 in January 2023, and $0.38 in July 2024. Each time, the asset formed higher lows and later moved higher. CoinsKid believes that this long period of price compression along the trendline helped fuel the breakout to $3.4 in January 2025.

However, he warned that a drop below the trendline support and a weekly close below the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $0.6248 would indicate trouble. A drop beneath that level could open the door to losing the Fib. 1 level at $0.3855. If that happens, XRP could slide further toward the Fib. 1.272 ($0.2087) and Fib. 1.618 ($0.0956) range.

Key XRP Fibonacci Levels and Resistance to Watch

Speaking further, CoinsKid shared several support levels that traders should watch. Specifically, he pointed to the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $1.19, the 0.618 golden ratio at $0.9127, and the major 0.786 level at $0.6248. According to him, XRP often pulls back to the 0.618 level before finding support.

On the upside, XRP faces resistance at a descending trendline that sits near $1.55, which also matches the 0.382 Fibonacci level. To regain strength, XRP must break above this area. If price dips toward the ascending support trendline first and then rebounds above $1.19 at the 0.5 level, that move could clear the descending trendline and set up a strong third wave higher.

For now, XRP continues to form lower highs and lower lows, confirming the ongoing downtrend. CoinsKid suggested that traders wait for a clear breakout above the descending trendline instead of trying to predict the exact bottom.

XRP to $8 Remains on the Table

The analyst noted that he sees the rally to $3.66 in July 2025 as Wave 1 and the current decline as a Wave 2 pullback. He now expects a massive Wave 3 that could send the price into new territory once XRP holds the ascending support trendline and breaks above resistance.

He also called attention to past breakouts above similar descending resistance lines. In July 2020, XRP broke above the descending resistance at $0.2 and later climbed to $1.96 by April 2021. In January 2023, it moved above $0.4 and eventually surged to $3.66 by July 2025.

Based on this history, CoinsKid sees $8 as his long-standing minimum target. Meanwhile, over a longer time frame, he even considers $27 possible.