XRP Maintains $15-$20 Macro Target Despite Elliott Wave Structure Uncertainty

XRP witnesses an unclear structure within a complex Elliott Wave web that has played out since 2014, but the macro target remains bullish.

The crypto market has not recovered from the persistent downtrend that has led to nearly $2 trillion in losses since October 2025. Amid the decline, XRP has continued to face selling pressure, down 23.64% year-to-date as it battles the bears at $1.4.

However, multiple analysts insist that the ongoing turbulence may merely represent a correction within a broader bullish structure. Now, market data shows that this structure could be a web of Elliott Wave patterns that have played out since 2014, pointing to a potential macro target of $15 to $20.

Key Points

• Currently trading for $1.4, XRP has declined 23.64% this year in a market-wide downtrend that has led to nearly $2 trillion in losses since October 2025.
• Data shows that the current XRP price turbulence may represent a pullback within an otherwise bullish web of Elliott Wave patterns.
• As these patterns continue to play out, whether XRP is trailing a Wave 4 or 2 formation remains unclear.
• Regardless of the structure that takes precedence, XRP’s macro target of around $15 to $20 for the imminent breakout remains in play.

XRP Run Since the 2022 Low

Market analyst Hov discussed this during a recent report. The analyst stressed that his main long-term expectation has not changed. Specifically, he has been watching the $15 to $20 zone for a while now, and it does not matter whether the current move is a fourth wave correction or a deeper second wave pullback. Either way, he still sees the price heading toward that same macro target.

Data from his 2-week chart shows that XRP trades within a complex web of Elliott Wave structures that date back to its inception. However, his point of interest for the current analysis starts at the $0.28 bottom in June 2022 during the bear market at the time. 

From this level, XRP recorded an impressive recovery to reach a $0.94 peak in July 2023, buoyed by the pivotal SEC case ruling that month. Notably, this $0.94 high marked Wave 1 of the Elliott Wave structure relevant to the current analysis. 

After the $0.94 peak, XRP entered Wave 2, which resulted in a collapse to $0.38 in July 2024. From here, Wave 3 ensued, pushing XRP to $3.4 by January 2025, with this peak triggered by the November 2024 rally. From $3.4, XRP pulled back and soared to $3.6 by July 2025. However, it has since corrected from this high, now trading within Wave 4.

Current XRP Structure Still Unclear

The Wave 4 correction has led to the ongoing downtrend, which has resulted in an over 60% decline from the $3.6 peak. However, the market is facing uncertainty at this point. Hov noted that it remains unclear whether this downtrend really represents a Wave 4 or a Wave 2 phase that is part of a larger structure.

However, whether the downturn represents a Wave 4 decline or a Wave 2 drop, the macro target of $15 to $20 remains in play. Nonetheless, Hov emphasized that if this turns out to be a deeper Wave 2 pullback, then the recovery push could lead to a much higher target.

Why Wave 2 Could Lead to Higher Gains

His chart shows several Fibonacci extension levels that support the targets. Specifically, the 1.618 extension points to about $12.2, while the 2.0 extension sits near $29.37. There is also a target box between $17 and $23, with a 0.236 retracement marker around $17.69. These levels sit close to his $15-$20 expectation.

If the current move is a Wave 4, then a final Wave 5 could send XRP into the $15-$20 range. However, if this turns out to be a larger Wave 2, the upside could be even stronger. In this case, XRP would still need to complete a strong Wave 3, followed by a corrective Wave 4 and then another Wave 5 rally. 

Elliott Wave theory often sees Wave 3 as the strongest part of the trend. As a result, this could push the price toward $12.20 first and potentially toward $29.37 later. In this scenario, $20 would not be the final stop but just part of a much bigger run.